With the college football season fast approaching, sportsbooks have provided win totals for all 133 college football teams.
The board is full of possibilities, from the two-time defending national champions at 11.5 to lowly Massachusetts at 1.5 and every team in between.
When it comes to win totals, diagnosing a roster is just as important as understanding how a team will navigate a schedule.
Travel schedules, facing teams coming off a bye week, and the dreaded situational traps, known as “letdowns” and “lookaheads,” all factor into spotting an ideal win total.
This season, I have three win totals I’m targeting: Two Overs and one Under.
Colorado State won just three games last season, but rebuilding was expected in Jay Norvell’s first season in Fort Collins.
Their offensive line was ghastly, allowing an FBS-worst 59 sacks.
But there were a handful of positive signs buried in that 3-9 campaign.
Their true freshman quarterback Clay Millen set the NCAA record for completion percentage by a freshman (72.2 percent), and receiver Tory Horton looked like an All-American at times (1,131 yards, eight touchdowns).
Their pass defense was phenomenal in conference play, allowing just 161.4 yards per game.
Four of their five starters in the secondary return, and their pass-rushing specialist Mohamed Kamara (16 TFLs in 2022).
Norvell went 3-9 in his first year at Nevada in 2017 and transformed that team into an 8-5 bowl winner the next season.
If the Rams can protect Millen (added four transfer linemen), the passing game will pop, and they’ll cruise past their win total of 4.5 (+110, Caesars).
Excluding the COVID-19 season, Penn State has exceeded its 2023 win total of 9.5 in four of its past six campaigns.
And now the Nittany Lions are turning over the reins to their highest-rated quarterback in a decade.
Drew Allar was the nation’s top-rated pocket passer in the 2022 class.
In limited action last fall, he flashed poise, touch, and the kind of arm talent that is going to open up offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich’s playbook.
The former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator coached up Mason Rudolph in Stillwater, and the future pro blossomed in 2017 (4,904 yards, 37 TDs).
Surrounding Allar is an elite offensive line and two sophomore running backs primed for breakout seasons.
Betting on College Football?
It’s easy to envision Penn State’s best offense since the Joe Moorhead days.
They have All-Big Ten talent at all three levels of their defense and Manny Diaz calling plays.
The schedule boils down to Ohio State on the road and Michigan at home.
If they split those games, they can suffer a letdown somewhere else and still cash this Over (6.5, -140 on FanDuel), but if they drop both, they’ll need to fend off upset bids from Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan State.
Let’s close things out with a team I’m fading in 2023, Army (6). The Black Knights are ditching the Flexbone playbook after generations of the triple-option and pivoting to a shotgun look.
Offensive coordinator Drew Thatcher comes over from Division II Nebraska-Kearney and has his work cut out for him.
Keep in mind, Army can’t use the transfer portal like other programs to bring in players familiar with the new system.
They’re starting from scratch with mismatched players and feature one of the worst run defenses in the nation.
No longer able to play keep-away with the triple-option, their defense will be further exposed.
The schedule is going to crush them — three Power Five opponents, two Group of Five conference champions from 2022, and they also draw Air Force and Coastal Carolina.
Under all the way – +106, BetMGM.
