This is audition time for the Yankees. But not exclusively for the youngsters who have brought talent and energy to the team.
DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton know they have the Yankees made next year as opposed to, say, Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira. But how good the Yankees will be in 2024 will have as much to do — at minimum — with what those veterans have left, especially considering that they will cost $57 million toward the luxury tax payroll in 2024.
There are many reasons why the 2023 season turned bad for the Yankees. As big as any factor was LeMahieu, Rizzo and Stanton performing so miserably during the eight weeks that Aaron Judge missed with an injured right big toe.
Rizzo, as we have learned, had an excuse. It turns out he was concussed after his head smashed into Fernando Tatis Jr.’s leg on May 28. I still don’t understand how the Yankees watched a player so expert at making contact — including during his first two healthy months — flail helplessly at hittable pitches and did not request a cognitive test each week; such was the stark before and after of the collision. Perhaps that will be part of Hal Steinbrenner’s “very deep dive into everything we are doing” as the owner tries to determine why this season went wrong.
For now, Rizzo can do nothing to show he is over the post-concussion symptoms. He has been shut down for the rest of the season. But LeMahieu and Stanton play on. LeMahieu suddenly is performing near his peak and Stanton is homering at a frequency commensurate with his career. Of course, Judge is back now. But without a baseball miracle, the Yankees will not make the playoffs. And Rizzo and Stanton will be in their age-34 season in 2024 and LeMahieu in his age-35 season at a time when the changed rules of the game demand youth and athleticism.
In the best-case scenario, Rizzo will return in 2024 to perform as he did before the injury in 2023 — as among the majors’ most productive first baseman. LeMahieu has seemed to rise while working with new hitting coach Sean Casey after not finding kumbaya with Casey’s predecessor, Dillon Lawson. Perhaps he will deliver for a full 2024 the kind of numbers he has since the All-Star break. Maybe Stanton will find a way to mix in more batting average with the power.
In the worst scenario, the questions will begin early next season regarding if and when Steinbrenner will have the tolerance to eat contracts (think Aaron Hicks) by letting any of that group go. Rizzo’s pact expires after 2024, LeMahieu’s after 2026 and Stanton’s after 2027. Again, the Yankees are tied to these players, so it will be hard to be a high-end team if these are not productive.
LeMahieu and Rizzo have a particular value because when they are right they can hit good pitching. And in Rizzo’s case, he can give the Yankees some lefty diversity.
Casey theorizes that LeMahieu had so disjointed his swing after injuring his foot last season and plummeting in the second half that it took him half a year to find what feels normal for him again. LeMahieu hit .220 with a .643 OPS in the first half. It was .282 and .879 in the second half as he has rediscovered his opposite-field might.
When right, LeMahieu has had a catalytic quality with the Yankees. That’s because he can hit those good pitchers. Because he is unflappable. Because he does such a good job hitting in front of Judge, even drawing walks at a strong clip (13.9 percent of plate appearances in the second half), though the last thing the opposition wants to do is author a free pass before Judge.
“I think for a while there it sped up on him as he tried to work on his swing,” Casey said. “He is back to slowing it down. He is back to using the whole field. And when he does that he is just a terrific hitter.”
Meanwhile, Stanton had 13 homers in the second half this season entering Wednesday — the 12th most in the majors. He was homering in 6.3 percent of his plate appearances, which is exactly the career rate for someone who hit his 400th homer Tuesday night. But his batting average was just .207 in the second half and .205 for the season.
Casey said he believes Stanton has been unable to find consistency with his swing, but that there is still a .270-.280 hitter in there.
“He is still helping us win games and it is September [so it is hard to fix things],” Casey said. “But he hits the ball so hard and I don’t think you can hit the ball that hit without having ability still in there.”
But that power will come at what cost? Batting average (.208 the last two seasons)? Mounting strikeouts? In the first half, Stanton was below his career norm (25.2 percent). He had 30.2 percent strikeouts in the second half. Stanton comes by his power naturally, but it feels like too many Yankees hitters who have chased exit velocity at the expense of all else.
Back to the best-case scenario, in which LeMahieu, Rizzo and Stanton deservedly hit 1-3-4 around Judge in 2024. Or the worst, in which they are the Nos. 1-2-3 problems on the roster.
