UFC 291 is live from Boston on Saturday
One of the more exciting cards of the year features 12 fights, including five main card bouts.
The main card will be on PPV starting at 10 p.m., but the early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, and stars and prospects are loaded on this fight card.
All analysis is below; a few additional props are added at the bottom.
UFC 291
Sean O’Malley vs. Aljamain Sterling
At the bantamweight division, Aljamain Sterling looks to defend his title against the fan favorite, “Sugar” Sean O’Malley.
O’Malley has been getting most of the action up to this point, and we expect that to continue going forward as he’s extremely popular.
But don’t fall for that nonsense. Sterling is the side here as a much better grappler and more durable fighter.
Looking back at O’Malley’s fight with Petr Yan, it’s hard to say whether he won any of those rounds, despite coming away victorious.
Sure, he has serious power and could get a knockout victory.
But we aren’t here to bet on “could’s”. We bet on “should’s” and this matchup is a borderline nightmare for O’Malley.
Sterling is a reliable, intelligent fighter who grapples when needed, stays safe in striking exchanges, and has unreal cardio.
O’Malley’s ankles are made of glass, and only defends takedowns at a 60 percent rate despite being given cakewalk matchups.
If this line drops to -190 for Sterling, it is time to lay the hammer and add more live if O’Malley finds early success.
This is a nightmare spot of the “Sugar Show.”
Pre-fight, a “Same-Game Parlay” on Sterling wins and over 4.5 minutes comes in at -155 on DraftKings, which is surely an acceptable way to bet on this uber-reliable champion.
Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
Zhang Weili will defend her UFC bantamweight title opposite Amanda Lemos, with Weili coming in as a massive -375 favorite.
Weili has been in some absolute wars against the top of the division, but her knockout loss to Rose Namajunas should give at least some pause to bettors looking to add Weili to a parlay.
Lemos has some of the best power in women’s bantamweight history and will likely look like a game underdog in the first two rounds.
She is currently +280 on BetRivers at the time of writing, but this line could get even higher as bettors look to square their balance sheets for the night.
Bet on Lemos here to win at +280 pre-fight, and if Lemos doesn’t finish by the end of round two, look to hedge off and bet on Weili, likely at pick ’em odds.
You can also do worse than a “fight goes the distance” wager at +290 on Bet365 (N.J., Ohio, VA., Colo.), as women’s fights go the distance roughly 60 percent of the time.
Cody Gibson vs. Brad Kotona
No one has been watching “The Ultimate Fighter”, which has been a disaster, but Cody Gibson comes in as a decently-priced underdog opposite favorite, Brad Kotona.
Kotona is mostly just a grappler who does very little damage when on top and his striking leaves much to be desired.
We have discussed this in the past, but if you’re expecting a low-volume grappler to control his way to victory in the UFC, you will struggle with judges scoring.
Judges value damage and Gibson has the finishing upside here.
This is a low-level MMA fight, but Kotona shouldn’t be favored here.
Bet Gibson at +150 on Bet365 in a fight that should be, at a minimum, closer to even odds.
UFC 292 picks and props
- Gregory Rodriguez wins by submission +210 (FanDuel)
- Chris Weidman wins by decision +500 (BetMGM)
- Cody Gibson ML +150 (Bet365)
- Amanda Lemos +280 (BetRivers) | Fight goes to decision +290 (Bet365)
- Aljamain Sterling wins in over 4.5 minutes -155 (DraftKings)
