In the Hudson Valley, Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Pat Ryan, both incumbents, hold leads over their opponents in the polls as the election campaign nears its conclusion. In the 17th District, which includes Rockland, Putnam, and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties, Lawler leads former Democratic Representative Mondaire Jones with 49% to Jones’ 44% among likely voters. A recent survey by Emerson College Poll/Pix 11/The Hill, released Tuesday, indicates that 7% of voters remain undecided or support minor party candidates. Lawler’s advantage is largely due to his significant 27-point lead among male voters, while Jones holds a 16-point lead among female voters. Lawler’s support has climbed from 45% to 49% since earlier in the month, while Jones’ support has remained stable.
In the 18th District, which covers Dutchess, Orange, and Ulster counties, Pat Ryan receives support from 51% of likely voters, compared to 42% for his Republican opponent Alison Esposito. Ryan holds a substantial 20-point lead among female voters in a district where abortion is a key issue, while male voters are more evenly divided. Ryan’s support has increased from 48% to 51%, whereas Esposito’s support has slightly dropped.
The gender gap is noticeable in the 17th District, where men favour Lawler by 27 points, while women prefer Jones by 16 points. In the 18th District, men are nearly evenly split, with 47% supporting Esposito and 46% backing Ryan, while women favour Ryan by 20 points. Both incumbents enjoy more popularity than their challengers, with 52% of voters having a favourable view of Lawler compared to Jones’ 44%, and Ryan also garnering 52% favourability against Esposito’s 41%.
Lawler, Ryan ahead of rivals in Hudson Valley as Election Day nears: new poll: Two Hudson Valley House incumbents lead their rivals in polls heading into the election campaign’s home stretch, thanks to big gender gaps in their favor. https://t.co/5COr5uLoyq #NahBabyNah pic.twitter.com/9pjq8mO9GD
— NahBabyNah #Trump (@NahBabyNah) October 30, 2024
A spokesperson for Lawler’s campaign expressed satisfaction with the poll results, highlighting Lawler’s strong position for re-election and dismissing the negative campaigns against him. At the national level, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck. In the 17th District, Harris has 50% support while Trump has 47%, within the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error. In the 18th District, Trump has 49% support, slightly ahead of Harris at 48%.
The economy ranks as the top concern for voters in both districts, with 30% in the 17th and 32% in the 18th identifying it as a priority. Immigration, housing affordability, crime, and threats to democracy are other critical issues. Financial assessments reveal that half of the 17th District voters feel worse off financially than a year ago, while 32% feel unchanged, and 18% feel better. In the 18th District, 48% feel worse off, 35% feel the same, and 18% feel better.
The Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill surveys for the New York 17th and 18th districts were conducted from October 24-26 through cell phone text message and online. In the 17th District, 475 likely voters participated, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. In the 18th District, 450 likely voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
What Other Media Are Saying
- New York Post reports a neck-and-neck congressional race in the lower Hudson Valley with Mike Lawler leading at 45%, Mondaire Jones at 44%, reflecting voter uncertainty.(read more)
- AOL reports Lawler ahead of rivals in Hudson Valley as Election Day nears, with freshman Lawler leading ex-Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones by 5% among likely voters in the 17th District.(read more)
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some common questions asked about this news
Who is leading in the 17th District election?
Republican Mike Lawler leads with 49% over Democrat Mondaire Jones at 44%.
What is the main issue for voters in the Hudson Valley elections?
The economy is the top concern for voters in both districts.
How do gender preferences differ in the 17th District?
Men favor Lawler by 27 points, while women prefer Jones by 16 points.
What is Pat Ryan’s lead in the 18th District?
Pat Ryan leads with 51% support over Alison Esposito’s 42%.
How do voters feel financially compared to last year?
In both districts, about half feel worse off financially than a year ago.
