Oddsmakers seem to have a suspicion as to where Damian Lillard will be traded.
Lillard’s wish all along has been for a trade to the Miami Heat, and despite a lot of hints from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reporting that the Trail Blazers will still shop around their star guard, it seems likely that he will be taking his talents to South Beach.
If Portland wanted, they could shock the world, similar to the San Antonio Spurs with Kawhi Leonard, and deal him to any team they want.
But how likely is that?
Let’s see what oddsmakers say about Damian Lillard’s 2023-24 season trade destination.
| Damian Lillard next team odds | Implied Probablity |
|---|---|
| Miami Heat -300 | 75 percent |
| Boston Celtics +550 | 15.38 percent |
| Portland Trail Blazers +700 | 12.5 percent |
| Los Angeles Clippers +900 | 10 percent |
| Philadelphia 76ers +1000 | 9.09 percent |
| Brooklyn Nets +1200 | 7.69 percent |
| San Antonio Spurs +1800 | 5.26 percent |
| Utah Jazz +2000 | 4.76 percent |
| Milwaukee Bucks +3000 | 3.23 percent |
| Cleveland Cavaliers +3000 | 3.23 percent |
| New Orleans Pelicans +4000 | 2.44 percent |
| Memphis Grizzlies +5000 | 1.96 percent |
| Los Angeles Lakers +5000 | 1.96 percent |
| Dallas Mavericks +5000 | 1.96 percent |
| Toronto Raptors +6000 | 1.64 percent |
| New York Knicks +6000 | 1.64 percent |
| Chicago Bulls +6000 | 1.64 percent |
| Atlanta Hawks +6000 | 1.64 percent |
| Washington Wizards +8000 | 1.23 percent |
| Minnesota Timberwolves +8000 | 1.23 percent |
| Golden State Warriors +8000 | 1.23 percent |
| Orlando Magic +10000 | .99 percent |
| Sacramento Kings +10000 | .99 percent |
| Phoenix Suns +10000 | .99 percent |
| Oklahoma City Thunder +10000 | .99 percent |
| Denver Nuggets +10000 | .99 percent |
| Indiana Pacers +13000 | .76 percent |
| Detroit Pistons +13000 | .76 percent |
| Houston Rockets +13000 | .76 percent |
| Charlotte Hornets +13000 | .76 percent |
Damian Lillard trade candidates
The odds here imply a massive vig, upwards of 72 percent, but that’s a fair expectation when booking a market that isn’t really available on other sportsbooks.
If Lillard were to not land in Miami, you would have to expect a massive overpay from a team with assets in another bigger market that is looking to win now.
The Knicks would come to mind here, but they haven’t shown any interest according to the mainstream media.
Perhaps they are playing the silent assassin role from behind the scenes.
After all, 60:1 is a pretty enticing price.
But the Knicks have been extremely patient when looking to bring in stars with their 13 available draft picks.
Betting on the NBA?
The same can be said for the Brooklyn Nets, who have plenty to trade in a deal, but reports haven’t been very positive toward them acquiring Lillard, but instead looking into Tyler Herro of the Heat as part of a larger trade.
“[The Nets] did sign Lonnie Walker, but I heard that, that won’t preclude them from doing anything as far as going for Herro,” The Athletic’s Shams Charania said of the Nets’ involvement in the trade.
The Lakers could have been interesting if their team didn’t make the Western Conference Finals last season.
Do not expect Anthony Davis to become available in this deal, and a Lillard-Lakers trade is among the least likely possibilities out there.
All roads lead back to oddsmakers being right on this one.
Lillard seems overwhelmingly likely to end up in Miami, and frankly, -300 is a pretty fair price.
If we play out this situation 100 times, he probably ends up with the Heat 90 times or more.
