California could be months away from a major earthquake measuring six on the Richter scale – which would be one of the largest seismic events in two decades.
A new study has found that earthquakes occur every 22 years in the Parkfield portion of the San Andreas Fault in central California, which runs through Eureka and ends just past Palm Springs.
The most recent was a 6-magintidue from 2004, which followed a previous one A magnitude 6.7 earthquake in 1983, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake in 1966, and a magnitude 6.5 earthquake in 1934.
Parkfield is thought to be nearing the end of its quiet period and an earthquake could hit the fault line this year, said lead researcher Luca Malagnini.
Researchers have determined that earthquakes occur on the Parkfield portion of the fault in central California every 22 years, with the last occurring in 2004.
The San Andreas Fault, seen here on Southern California’s Carrizo Plain, runs for hundreds of miles across the state and is the site of relatively frequent earthquakes.
Scientists have long been monitoring the San Andreas Fault, which is expected to be the source of the ‘Big One’.
Experts believe that a major earthquake would kill about 1,800 people, injure 50,000 and cause more than $200 billion in damage.
But while California is safe, a new study looked at whether there are warning signs to help residents prepare.
On September 28, 2004, an earthquake shook the area with the epicenter in the town of Parkfield, where only 37 people lived at the time.
The earthquake was felt over a 350-mile radius, from Orange County to Sacramento.
Scientists have also clocked 150 aftershocks after the seismic event.
Malagnini, director of research at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy, said Living Science that he believes an earthquake will occur this year, but that it is unlikely to strike at the 2004 epicenter.
Although the earthquake window is fast approaching, scientists say the area is not producing much seismic noise.
The team looked for a possible pattern to the Parkfield earthquakes.
They analyzed measurements of the fault line leading up to six weeks before each seismic event and discovered there was a different kind of signal that seemed to indicate the opening and closing of rock cracks in the tense area.
Using nearly 23 years of seismic measurements from the area, they determined that a “preparatory phase,” in which cracks beneath the Earth’s surface open and close, signals an impending earthquake.
When this happens, sound waves travel through the ground in a different way.
Their measurements relate to something called “seismic wave attenuation,” a scientific term that describes how sound waves travel through rock. Waves naturally lose energy as they travel through rock, a process called attenuation.
Earthquakes are high energy waves, but small waves can occur on a fault line even when there is no earthquake.
Scientists have been monitoring the San Andreas Fault, which is predicted for the ‘Big One’, for some time now. The photo shows what Los Angeles might look like if a magnitude 6 earthquake were to occur
If a major crisis were to occur, experts predict that approximately 1,800 people will be killed, 50,000 will be injured and more than 60 buildings will collapse – resulting in at least $200 billion in damage. The photo shows what AI predicts Sacramento would look like after the Big One
And it is these waves that the scientists measured. What they found was that certain types of waves lost energy more quickly in the six weeks before the 2004 earthquake, while others lost energy more slowly.
High-frequency waves weakened more slowly, or lost energy, while low-frequency waves weakened more quickly as the earthquake approached.
The fact that there are not many volcanoes in the area helps, the researchers wrote.
Because there are no volcanoes nearby, they can be more confident that the waves they measure actually come from the stress at the fault.
And fortunately, there is currently no evidence that “God is sending America strong signals telling us to repent,” as U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene recently claimed when an earthquake occurred near Donald Trump’s Bedminster Golf Course in New Jersey .
Earthquakes on the east and west coasts are not scientifically linked, although it is impossible to completely rule out whether they are religiously linked.
A new study has found that earthquakes occur about every 22 years on the Parkfield portion of the fault in central California, which runs through Eureka and ends just past Palm Springs.
Earthquakes occur when the Earth’s plate parts move against each other. This is usually the result of the built-up tension due to the plates pressing against each other.
So if the tension on a slab has recently been relieved elsewhere, this is less likely to cause an earthquake on the Parkfield section.
Because all of these dynamic processes are happening at the same time, it is difficult to predict when and where the next earthquake will occur, and the researchers do not claim that they can.
But they are optimistic that these types of measurements could one day lead to earthquake prediction systems.
The study was published in the magazine Frontiers in Earth Sciences.
