A man known as the ‘world’s most accurate economist’ is taking his talents to the US elections and predicting whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win and what consequences this will have for the markets.
Christophe Barraud of Market Securities has been rated by Bloomberg as the economist who best predicts what will happen to the U.S. economy each year, for 11 out of the last 12.
Now he is looking to the 2024 election, focusing on what will happen to the markets if Harris or Trump are elected, as polls show Trump with an edge over Harris on the economy.
Barraud is optimistic about a growth economy regardless of who wins, as markets are currently hesitant due to the elections, but also due to weather disasters and labor strikes.
However, Barraud says the most likely outcome in 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump taking back the White House and the Republicans taking back the Senate, with a bid for the House of Representatives.
Christophe Barraud, a man known as the ‘world’s most accurate economist’, takes his talents to the US elections and predicts whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win and how this will affect the markets
He uses a model that combines economic, financial and satellite data, as well as backtests and external models, Barraud said Business insider.
Barraud also takes into account what the betting markets have said about the election, and values the elections that see the most action. The betting markets have been bullish on Trump for most of the year.
What would happen to the economy if Trump won and Republicans took control of Congress?
Barraud expects GDP to rise 2.1 to 2.3% in 2025 after Trump’s tax cuts.
However, he is concerned about the ever-growing US budget deficit and where it will go if Trump implements tax cuts.
The economist’s other predictions include a Trump victory but a divided Congress, which would limit the president’s power and force him to spend most of his time on foreign policy.
Tariffs – a big part of Trump’s economic plan – would be introduced sooner than many think, according to Barraud, which would hurt global growth and possibly hurt the economy in the long term.
His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little expected to change.
Barraud says the most likely outcome in 2024 is a red wave: Donald Trump taking back the White House and the Republicans taking back the Senate, with a bid for the House of Representatives
His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little expected to change.
A series of new polls with just two weeks to go before Election Day show Donald Trump with an edge on the economy, an issue that has historically driven presidential races.
At a time when voters are still focused on inflation, even though it has cooled to 2.4 percent, Americans are concluding that Trump will make them richer and narrowly saying they trust him more on the economy.
Trump holds just under 48 to 46 percent CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
But among those who make inflation and the economy a priority, Trump’s lead rises to 42 to 24.
Trump also has a narrow 48-47 margin in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election.
Both candidates are crisscrossing the country in those states to get their economic messages out.
Trump had a 35-point lead among those most concerned about the economy, an issue he continually emphasizes, and a 19-point lead among those most concerned about crime and safety—an issue he often intertwined with immigration by speaking of gruesome murders committed by migrants.
In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within the 4% margin of error for that part of the poll.
A series of new polls with just two weeks to go before Election Day show Donald Trump ahead on the economy, an issue that has historically driven presidential races
Both candidates are crisscrossing the country in those states to get their economic messages out
The survey also found that Trump has a 35-point lead among voters most concerned about immigration, and a 19-point lead on crime and safety.
Another one Opinion poll in the Financial Times Led by the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, Trump had a narrow lead on the economy.
He led Harris 44 percent to 43 percent, essentially a tie. When asked who would make them better off financially, respondents chose Trump by 45 to 37 percent.
