UNITED NATIONS — The The world population is expected to grow by more than 2 billion people According to a new United Nations report, this number is expected to increase in the coming decades, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the 2080s.
The report, released on World Population Day, said the global population is expected to fall to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the earlier-than-expected population peak is due to several factors, including lower fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China, where the population is expected to decline dramatically from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
Globally, women are having one fewer child on average than they did in 1990, the report said, and in more than half of all countries and territories, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level needed to maintain a country’s population without migration.
Nearly 20% of the world’s population – including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain – has “ultra-low” fertility, with women having fewer than 1.4 live births, according to the report by the UN Population Division.
“The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign,” said UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua. “This could mean that the pressure on the environment from human impacts is easing due to lower overall consumption.”
However, Li stressed that even with lower population growth, people still need to individually reduce the impact of their activities to protect the environment.
According to the report, population will have already peaked in 63 countries and territories in 2024, including China, Germany, Japan and Russia. In this group, the total population is expected to decline by 14% over the next 30 years.
In another 48 countries and territories, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, population sizes are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054, the report said.
For the remaining 126 countries and territories, including the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan, populations are expected to grow through 2054, “potentially peaking in the second half of the century or later.”
The UN predicts very rapid growth for nine of those countries – including Angola, the Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia – with their populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The world population has grown dramatically over the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, the world population has increased by about 2.5% to 8.2 billion.
Kathleen Mogelgaard, president and CEO of the Washington-based Population Institute, said Thursday’s new estimates highlight “a widening demographic divide around the world.”
While it identified more than 100 countries and territories where populations have already peaked or will peak in the next 30 years, it also showed where populations will continue to grow, she said. Many of those countries are among the world’s poorest.