WASHINGTON — A former president is shot, the shooter is quickly taken out, and it’s all caught on camera. But for those who can’t believe their eyes, this is just the beginning of the story.
For some supporters of former President Donald Trump, the failure of the secret service prevent the attempted murder point to a conspiracy orchestrated by President Joe Biden. But for some of Trump’s critics, the details of the shooting don’t add up. They wonder if Trump somehow staged the whole thing.
Two rival conspiracy theories have taken root online in the wake of Trump’s attempted assassination, one for each end of America’s polarized political spectrum. In this split-screen republic, Americans are increasingly choose their own realityat the expense of a shared understanding of the facts.
“One screen, two movies,” is how Ron Bassilian describes the online reaction to Saturday’s shooting. Bassilian is a prolific user of social media and has used X to spread his suspicions about the shooting. “People have their beliefs and they’re going to come up with theories that fit their beliefs.”
Bassilian is one of many Republicans now wondering how the suspected shooter, Thomas Matthew Crookswas able to climb onto the roof of a building, providing a clear shot at Trump, and whether law enforcement looked the other way to allow the attempt. Bassilian acknowledged that he has no evidence to support his suspicion. But the Culver City, California, resident said many people will be suspicious of any statements until an independent investigation into the facts is completed.
“It seems very suspicious,” Bassilian said of the attack on Trump and the law enforcement response. “There was something going on that was more than a misstep.”
Authorities have not released any information about Crooks’ possible motive, though they have said they believe he acted alone. But a dearth of details from law enforcement and mounting questions about the Secret Service’s performance have prompted online sleuths to speculate — often in ways that reveal their own ideological leanings.
Some of the claims about the shooting are already debunked. Despite claims that the Secret Service refused to provide Trump with additional security for the rally, the agency says it has actually hired more staff. A report from someone claiming to be a sniper at the rally — who said they were ordered not to shoot the suspect — was discredited after it emerged that there was no sniper with his name on duty Saturday. And a photo supposedly showing an unharmed Trump after the rally turned out to be a photo from 2022.
People have an innate urge to share information and guesses after major events such as disasters, political assassinations or seemingly inexplicable events — a process experts call “collective sensemaking.” Often, experts say, we seek information that makes us feel safe, or in control of uncertainty. Trump’s attempted assassination is just the latest example on a list that includes assassination of JFKthe Moon landing, the attacks of September 11, 2001the Sandy Hook School Shooting, COVID-19 and the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.
Many of the claims about the attempted assassination of Trump first appeared on fringe social media platforms like 4chan and then spread to larger sites like X or TikTok, where they were seen by many more people.
“Spreading rumors under these circumstances is a normal thing that people do,” said Kate Starbird, a professor at the University of Washington who studies misinformation and how people use the internet after crises. Efforts to frame the shooting in a political context began within minutes of the shooting, Starbird said. “People were trying almost from the beginning to frame the event in a way that would advance their political goals.”
Many of these rumors may contain exaggerations, missing context, or outright lies that lead to confusion. conspiracy theoriesThe misinformation is then amplified by online trolls, politicians, internet influencers, and online merchants attempting to sell merchandise related to the assassination attempt. With little action taken to combat bad information online, such claims can spread quickly, impacting the 2024 election and potentially lasting for years to come.
The flood of false or misleading information about the shooting will only make it harder for voters to find reliable information heading into the 2024 elections, said Imran Ahmed, the CEO and founder of the Center for Countering Digital Hate, a nonprofit that tracks online misinformation and hate speech. Ahmed blamed social media platforms like X, TikTok and Facebook for failing to enforce basic content moderation policies and turning the spread of misinformation and hate speech into a lucrative business model.
Ahmed’s group analyzed 100 posts about the shooting that were recommended to users on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and found that many contained conspiracy theories. Only about 1 in 20 of the false posts had been flagged for inaccuracies or missing context using X’s “community notes” feature to add needed information. In two days, the posts had been viewed more than 215 million times. Some of the viral posts also contained hate speech, such as one suggesting that Saturday’s shooting was a plot by Jewish people.
“The algorithms take the most bizarre content and amplify it exponentially until the entire digital world is flooded with conspiracy theories, disinformation and hate,” Ahmed said. As a result, he said, “people seem to think that the only way to fight lies is with more lies.”
Russian state media and some pro-Kremlin influencers have already seized on the shooting with content blaming Democrats for the incident or questioning authorities’ explanations, based on recent posts from users with ties to Russia.
“You would almost think they let it happen and then got rid of the guy, because dead men tell no tales,” wrote John Mark Dougan, a former Florida deputy sheriff turned online influencer who writes pro-Kremlin content.
Russialike China And Iranhave historically used disinformation on social media to undermine Americans’ trust in government and democracy and increase polarization before the electionsThe aim is to exploit the understandable confusion, anger and concern that many Americans feel following the attempted assassination. Federal officials say they expect Russia and other adversaries to expand their disinformation campaigns targeting the US as November approaches.
Conspiracy theories have played an outsized role in recent American politics, with much attention focused on right-wing theories such as QAnonymousa movement that claims Democrats are involved in a global ring of Satanic, child-abusing cannibals. But the onslaught of misinformation and conspiracy theories following the assassination attempt show that conspiracy theories are not a party.
“They’re targeting left and right, and the same goes for domestic sources of disinformation,” said David Salvo, a senior fellow and managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a Washington-based group that tracks foreign disinformation. He has this advice for anyone interested in finding reliable, credible information about the shooting: “Check your sources and check the agenda behind those sources.”