MIAMI — Federal meteorologists are still predicting a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean thanks to near-record sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Niña, officials said Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of updated hurricane outlook These atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate an extremely active hurricane season, which could be among the busiest on record.
“The hurricane season started early and hard with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. “NOAA’s update to the seasonal hurricane outlook is an important reminder that the peak of the hurricane season is just around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms occur.”
Not much has changed compared to predictions released in May. Forecasters have adjusted the number of expected named storms from 17 to 25 to 17 to 24. Of those named storms, 8 to 13 are still likely to become hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 75 mph (121 km/h), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph (179 km/h).
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of which are hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
The updated outlook includes two tropical storms and two hurricanes that have already formed this year. The latter storm, Hurricane Debbyreached the Gulf Coast of Florida on Monday and was still moving across the Carolinas as a tropical storm on Thursday.
Storm names are selected from one of six rotating alphabetical lists of 21 names maintained by the World Meteorological Organization, skipping the letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z because there are not many common names beginning with those letters. The names rotate from year to year, alternating between male and female names. Names of significant storms are retired and replaced.
Starting with the 2021 hurricane season, a additional list of names was created for seasons with more than 21 named storms. Before that, storms were named after Greek letters, which happened in 2005 and 2020.
When meteorologists look at how busy a hurricane season is, two factors are most important: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, where storms form and need warm water for fuel, and whether there is a La Niña or El Niño, the natural and periodic cooling or warming of Pacific waters that changes weather patterns worldwide. A La Niña tends to speed up Atlantic storm activity and slow Pacific storm activity, while an El Niño does the opposite.
La Niña typically reduces the high-altitude winds that can decapitate hurricanes, and there is generally more instability or storminess in the atmosphere during a La Niña, which can fuel hurricane development. Storms get their energy from warm water. An El Niño that contributed to record-warm ocean temperatures for about a year ended in June, and meteorologists expect a La Niña to develop sometime between September and November. That could overlap with the peak hurricane season, which usually falls from mid-August to mid-October.
Even with last season’s El Niño, which normally keeps storms at bay, warm waters still led to an above-average hurricane season. Last year, there were 20 named storms, the fourth highest since 1950 and well above the average of 14. A general measure of the strength, duration and frequency of storms was 17% larger than normal last season.