NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump And Kamala Harris will debate for the first – and perhaps last – time Tuesday night, as the presidential candidates battle to sway voters on the biggest stage in American politics.
The meeting comes just 75 days after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance caused a political earthquake that ultimately forced him to abandon the raceFew expected such a transformative outcome this time around, but Trump is on a mission to end Harris’ “honeymoon,” as polls suggest the Democratic vice president now has equal or slightly more support than the Republican former president in some swing states.
Harris, a former prosecutor, will enter the night with relatively high expectations against a Republican opponent with 34 felony convictions and a penchant for making false statements. The question is whether Harris, who failed to make much of a splash during the primary debates of her 2020 presidential campaign, can pursue Trump’s glaring allegations in a face-to-face encounter on live television with the world watching.
The 90-minute event begins at 9 p.m. ET Tuesday at the National Constitutional Center in Philadelphia. The event will be moderated by ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis. In accordance with rules negotiated by both campaigns, there will be no live audience.
This is what we look for during a historic evening:
Biden set the bar incredibly low for Harris in the June 27 debate. The president struggled to make coherent arguments or even finish his sentences. But the anti-Trump coalition was mostly disappointed that he didn’t capitalize on Trump’s obvious political commitments — whether they were abortion, the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, character issues or his legal troubles.
Harris is expected to do much better. But even with such fertile terrain, scoring points against Trump on the debate stage is easier said than done. Trump is perhaps the most experienced debater in modern presidential history. As a former reality star, he knows how to dominate television coverage. And he clearly loves a fight.
Harris recently suggested she was looking forward to a political fight. “Donald,” she told a cheering crowd in Atlanta last month, “if you got something to say, say it to my face.”
Can she make good on her bold words? The world will soon find out.
Trump is not known for his discipline or preparation. His debate performance, like his governing style, is typically fueled far more by instinct than by thoughtful analysis.
That’s why few expect Trump to offer a clear, concise line of attack against Harris on Tuesday night. Still, he needs to do better than the kitchen-sink approach he’s tried on the campaign trail over the past month.
Trump has questioned Harris’ racial identity. He has falsely called her a communist. He has questioned her strength. He has called her a liberal from San Francisco. And he has reminded voters that she served nearly four years in the Biden White House and will likely continue the president’s policies for another four years if she wins.
It’s the Biden connection that many Republicans, inside and outside the Trump campaign, believe will be most effective. They want him to invoke Ronald Reagan’s 1980 debate speech — “Are you better off?” — early and often.
The question is whether Trump can deliver that message in a way that won’t be immediately overshadowed by a much more controversial statement. Recent history offers reasons to be skeptical.
Obviously, there will be a clear gender dynamic on stage on Tuesday night.
Whether or not it’s fair, body language and tone are viewed differently in a debate between a man and a woman. Just ask Hillary Clinton. She said Trump made her “skin crawl” when he stood behind her as she spoke during a town hall-style debate in 2016.
The candidates are expected to remain behind their podiums Tuesday night. But Republicans are hoping Trump will avoid other provocations, such as pointing, shouting or otherwise approaching Harris in a way that could be off-putting to suburban women or other swing voters.
Harris, too, will face unique challenges related to her race and gender as voters weigh whether to make her the nation’s first female president. Some voters still say they’re uncomfortable with the idea. If she comes across as angry, she risks playing on racist clichés about black women.
While gender dynamics play a role, don’t underestimate the importance of the age difference either.
Harris is nearly two decades younger than Trump, 78. Age was seen as a political advantage for Trump when he faced Biden, 81, but the situation is now reversed for Harris, 59. If he wins, Trump would be the oldest U.S. president ever elected.
The format will also be slightly different, in accordance with a set of rules the candidates agreed to this week.
There will be no live audience, no opening statements, and no props allowed. Candidates’ microphones will be muted when it is their opponent’s turn, a provision that has caused some controversy in recent days.
Trump reluctantly agreed to the mute feature when he faced Biden in June, but after that debate his team determined it was a net positive if voters didn’t hear anything from the former Republican president while his opponent spoke. Harris’ team pushed for a return to a normal format without mute buttons.
In presidential debates, policy sometimes plays a lesser role than personality, but there are stark differences between the candidates on key issues that concern millions of voters.
Republicans hope Trump will make immigration a defining issue of the debate.
The GOP has been effective at condemning the Biden administration’s handling of illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past four years. Once an issue that appealed primarily to the Republican base, illegal immigration — and related concerns about drugs, crime and national security — is now a top issue for voters across the political spectrum.
Harris will be eager to remind voters that Trump helped torpedo a bipartisan immigration bill that could have done much to solve the problem. But generally, Harris is likely to be defensive when the issue comes up.
Democrats, on the other hand, want to focus on abortion.
Trump, of course, appointed three Supreme Court justices who later overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that protected a woman’s right to choose abortion. Trump has repeatedly said he was proud that Roe was defeated. But knowing that such a view is unpopular among many women, he has tried to moderate his stance on the divisive issue.
Harris won’t make that easy. To state the obvious: As a woman, she’s positioned to be a much more effective messenger on the issue than Biden was. And Trump can’t afford to lose many more female voters.
When you ask Trump’s previous debate opponents what they were watching for Tuesday night (and we did), many say the same thing: Pay attention to the things he says or does that Harris couldn’t possibly prepare for.
Trump is the ultimate wild card who has achieved enormous political success by ignoring the traditional rules of politics. He will say or do whatever he thinks is best at the time. And Harris, who has spent several days preparing for the debate, can’t plan for everything.
At this point, it’s hard to imagine Trump surprising anyone with new material. He’s praised dictators, talked about the size of genitals, suggested suspending the U.S. Constitution, and said Harris only recently “turned black.”
Trump’s own team doesn’t know what he’s going to do or say on any given day. That’s incredibly risky for Trump. But it also puts enormous pressure on Harris.