Superman has already snatched Fantastic Four’s pre-sales record, but don’t expect a one-sided fight at the box office when both films hit cinemas.
Since Avengers: Endgame, there have been signs of superhero movie fatigue; MCU movies have underperformed unless they have a big, nostalgic hook (Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine), the DCEU hobbled until it was put down, and Madame Web and Kraven were huge flops.
The tide may finally turn again this summer. Fantastic Four marks the arrival of Marvel’s first family into the MCU and it’s expected to set up Avengers: Doomsday, while Superman is kicking off the next era of DC and introducing a new big-screen Man of Steel for the first time in over a decade.
These are both massive movies, and while Superman may appear to have an edge, its box office victory isn’t a given.
Superman needs to be great to beat Fantastic Four
According to Fandango, Fantastic Four sold more tickets in its first day than any other movie this year… until Superman, which sold even more tickets with fewer screenings available.
It’s still a bit early for projections, but according to Box Office Theory, Fantastic Four is eyeing a $125-135 million domestic debut in theaters. That’d be a big improvement from Captain America: Brave New World ($88.5m) and Thunderbolts* ($76m).
However, it’s coming to cinemas two weeks after Superman, which is tracking for an opening anywhere between $100-150 million in the US. As EmpireCity Box Office has pointed out, “it’s likely the most review-dependent film of the summer.”
“Mediocre to bad reviews and it opens in the $100m or lower range. Good reviews gets it to $125m+. Fantastic reviews can carry it to $150m+,” they added.
Here’s the thing: even with its recent flops (The Marvels and Ant-Man 3 in particular), Marvel still has an enviable track record, and the excitement for Fantastic Four to make their debut into the franchise (especially with Pedro Pascal and Stranger Things’ Joseph Quinn in the cast) is palpable.
It’s been enjoying one of the sturdiest, most confident marketing campaigns in recent memory from Marvel, and each trailer has been well-received – it will make money. It may not approach the billion-dollar mark (or maybe it will, who knows), but unless it’s appallingly reviewed, it’s set to be a much-needed hit for Kevin Feige and co.
The stakes are much higher for Superman. Yes, it looks incredible, but even with its sky-high trailer views and engagement on social media, two hurdles remain: it’s been 13 years since a solo Superman movie, so it’ll test audiences’ appetites for the character; the DCEU rarely reached the critical and commercial heights of the MCU, and that could have an impact on Superman.
Both movies are also getting IMAX releases, with some screenings for Superman already selling out a month before it drops in theaters.
There’s an ideal outcome: both movies make north of $700 million (this is the amount Superman needs to make to be considered a success, according to insiders), a strong start for Gunn’s vision for the DCU and a sign of renewed faith in the MCU.
It may be framed as a box office battle by fandoms on social media, but here’s the bottom line: with Jurassic World Rebirth also in play, it’s an exciting summer blockbuster season – and whoever wins, we win.
Superman hits cinemas on July 11, and Fantastic Four will be released on July 25. Keep tabs on the rest of the year’s films with our 2025 movie calendar.
