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2024 Election Showdown: ANC Forecasts a Turbulent Tumble for DA and EFF Amid Emerging Powerhouses

The EFF South Africa (EFF) is a political party in South Africa that has gained significant attention for its advocacy for social justice, equality, and the challenge of political corruption and economic inequality. Its positive aspects include increased representation and visibility of marginalized groups, a shift in political discourse towards more radical and transformative approaches, and empowerment and mobilization of marginalised communities to advocate for their rights.

The ANC/EFF alliance has formed another municipality from the DA-led multiparty coalition government, replacing Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality mayor Retief Odendaal with Northern Alliance leader Gary van Niekerk. Van Niekerk resigned from his position as council speaker to accept his nomination for the position of mayor, becoming the third mayor of the municipality since the local government elections in November 2021. Former mayor Eugene Johnson was brought back into the fold as the council speaker, defeating DA councillor Rano Keysor by 11 votes, getting 62 of the votes through a secret ballot that only had six spoilt ballots.

The ANC welcomed the removal of Odendaal and the election of Van Niekerk, stating that Odendaal had failed the people of the municipality through poor service delivery. The party said it would rally behind Van Niekerk and help him bring service delivery to the people of Nelson Mandela Bay.

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The ANC’s coalition framework paints a bleak picture for the DA and EFF in next year’s polls, predicting that community-based organizations, independent candidates, and new parties are the biggest threats it will face in the 2024 general election. The ANC believes that its two biggest opponents are likely to remain stagnant but says community-based organisations, independent candidates, and new parties are the biggest threats it will face in the 2024 general election.

New parties and community-based organizations are cannibalizing existing parties and gaining seats in municipalities, provincial legislatures, and the national parliament, and there is increased fragmentation of the party system. The advent of independent candidates in the 2024 elections may increase cannibalization and fragmentation of provincial and national governments. Whether these political developments will improve the quality of democracy and development outcomes is still open for debate.

The ANC’s research paints a bleak picture for the DA and EFF, finding they will not grow beyond their current support. New parties and community-based organizations are cannibalising existing parties and gaining seats in municipalities, provincial legislatures, and the national parliament, and there is increased fragmentation of the party system. The advent of independent candidates in the 2024 elections may increase cannibalization and fragmentation of provincial and national governments.

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The ANC’s 12-point plan of strategies and observations explains the rules of engagement for dealing with coalitions, including the EFF growing dramatically but levelling off and reaching a ceiling. The IFP declined drastically between the 2009 and 2014 elections but is now showing signs of resurrection in KwaZulu-Natal, at the expense of the ANC. The Freedom Front Plus is showing resilience and growing among Afrikaners, at the expense of the DA, while the Good and Patriotic Alliance and community-based parties have been gaining ground in colored communities across the country at the expense of both the ANC and DA.

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