The poll indicates that 37 percent of Kenyans prefer the former Tharaka Nithi senator as the next Deputy President should the impeachment of Gachagua proceed.
A report released on Monday, October 7 stemming from a survey done by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) has revealed that Kenyans majorly prefer Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki to succeed Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, if he is impeached by Parliament or if he decides to resign.
The poll indicates that 37 percent of Kenyans prefer the former Tharaka Nithi senator as the next Deputy President should the impeachment of Gachagua proceed.
Look Back
Recently, Kindiki amassed a significant endorsement of 48 elected leaders from the Mt Kenya region and the diaspora as their kingpin over Gachagua, a move which could dramatically tip the scales in the 2027 general elections. In political terms, a kingpin refers to a politician who controls the ethnic politics of a region and one must be a kingpin to have realistic chances of winning the presidency in Kenya.
It is also worth noting that Kindiki was also highly considered to be President William Ruto’s running mate in the run-up to the 2022 general elections, and was said to have won in both the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Electoral College and opinion polls conducted to pick Ruto’s running mate. The chance was however handed to Gachagua.
Expected replacements of DP Rigathi Gachagua as per the latest TIFA poll on October 7, 2024. /VIRAL TEA KE
The TIFA survey, conducted between October 1 and 4, 2024, showed strong support for Kindiki, particularly from the Mt. Kenya region, with 58 per cent of respondents in the area backing him as a possible replacement for Gachagua. 30 per cent of respondents from other regions also backed Kindiki as Gachagua’s replacement.
“Most Kenyans expect Interior CS Kithure Kindiki to fill the vacancy effected by the removal of the current DP should that occur, with such expectations considerably higher among the residents of the Mt. Kenya region itself,” reads the report, which however clarified that “the popularity of all such possible replacements for Gachagua was not measured in this survey.”
Other Possible Gachagua Successors
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi was ranked second in overall preference for the DP role, receiving support from five per cent of respondents, while Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro came in third, also with five per cent. Other figures considered included Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru at three per cent and Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga at two per cent.
Meanwhile, 33 per cent of respondents admitted that they were unsure who should succeed Gachagua, while four per cent believed President Ruto should have the authority to choose a successor without external influence.
Despite the speculation surrounding the potential impeachment, Gachagua still holds considerable support in the Mt. Kenya region, where 46 per cent of residents feel he best represents their interests.
Nationally, 28 per cent of Kenyans share this sentiment, with 12 per cent citing Kindiki as the next best option for the region’s representation. “Notwithstanding his possible (if not likely) removal from office, DP Gachagua is perceived by most Kenyans as the leader who ‘best represents’ the Mt. Kenya region,” reads the report.
The report also took note of uncertainty in the impeachment process itself, with commentators offering several possible outcomes. One of them includes Gachagua resigning before a formal impeachment vote is taken, which would allow him to avoid being barred from holding future public office.
Another outcome could be the National Assembly failing to pass the motion, or the Senate rejecting it, with or without President Ruto’s involvement.
The commentators have also overseen the possibility of the Judiciary intervening and overturning the impeachment, which could lead to a re-introduction of the motion. This is as Gachagua assembled his legal team of lawyers that are expected to challenge the outcome of the motion if it goes against him.
