President William Ruto has faced numerous challenges during his tenure of 10 months. These challenges include an opposition that refuses to acknowledge him as the legitimate president, turbulent anti-government protests, incidents of banditry in the northern regions, and a struggling economy.
Despite Raila’s lack of enthusiasm and the absence of significant progress towards his objective of delegitimizing President Ruto’s rule, Ruto remains steadfast in pursuing his agenda, known as “The Plan,” without succumbing to the pressures posed by the country’s numerous crises.
Surprisingly, Raila’s attempts, which have included even threatening to divide the nation, have failed to yield the desired outcome. Meanwhile, Ruto continues to enjoy a stroke of luck, maintaining his resilience and standing firm in his position, potentially positioning himself for a victory.
Perhaps the explanation lies in the contrasting strategies employed by Ruto and Raila. Ruto has adopted a survival strategy that encompasses both offensive and defensive measures, allowing him to withstand the challenges he faces. In contrast, Raila has predominantly relied on reactive tactics that generated significant media coverage but failed to compel Ruto to share power, as previous former presidents had done.
Despite months of protestations led by Raila, Ruto not only remains standing but also has a genuine opportunity to outmaneuver the opposition. As national problems continue to accumulate, Ruto, now in his first year as president, still has four more years ahead of him to address and rectify these issues.
Within Ruto’s camp, there is a sense of relief, albeit somewhat unstable, that the best is yet to come. In recent months, Ruto has appeared more at ease during public appearances, displaying increased confidence compared to a few months ago when he appeared tense and strained.
Ruto is making political gains by attracting new allies, as several members of the opposition have switched sides to support him. From the perspective of his supporters, the critical headlines dominating national newspapers and television stations are seen as positive signs that Ruto is committed to reforming a system that was severely damaged by his predecessor and further exacerbated by external factors, such as the conflict in Ukraine that triggered a global food crisis.
President Ruto was well aware that his rule would face significant challenges from his former allies turned adversaries, namely his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila, the opposition leader known for persistently challenging those who defeated him in elections. In order to mitigate their potential threats, Ruto adopted a strategy of actively courting opposition politicians, both elected and unelected, from all corners of the country.
This approach has yielded substantial results, as his party now holds a significant majority in Parliament. Consequently, the existence and viability of the anti-Ruto opposition, which is already a coalition of over two dozen parties, have been called into question, as their main purpose has largely diminished following their electoral defeat.
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