Recent national polling reveals that swing-state voters show stronger support for Donald Trump compared to the general population, shedding light on his chances against Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. Conducted from 11-13 October, the Harvard-Harris survey indicates that while the vice president holds a slim overall lead among 2,596 likely voters, the scenario shifts among 898 battleground voters in seven pivotal states.
In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states collectively holding 93 electoral votes—Trump leads 48% to Harris’s 46%, with 6% undecided or leaning towards a third-party candidate. Independent voters in these states favour Trump 44% to 40%. Those who have already decided overwhelmingly back Trump, 52% to 47%, while Harris finds more support among undecided voters, 41% to 28%, with 31% still unsure.
Trump’s appeal to traditionally Democratic strongholds and demographics is notable. He garners 42% support among urban voters, challenging the notion that Republicans struggle in big cities. His support among black voters has increased to 22%, a significant rise from 13% four years ago and 12% in his 2016 win. Additionally, Trump ties with Harris among college-educated voters at 49%, a demographic that has typically supported her.
#NEW: Trump holds national popular vote lead according to latest polling
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%Rasmussen | Sept. 9-12, 15 | N=1,963LV, 5-day average pic.twitter.com/QasZjacs7E
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 16, 2024
Trump is also performing well with early voters. Republicans and GOP-leaning independents appear more comfortable voting before Election Day, reversing a Democratic advantage seen during the 2020 pandemic election. While Harris leads the overall early vote by 8 points, Trump edges her 48% to 47% in the battleground states. This cycle, Democrats hold a 7-point advantage in early voting, down from a 19-point lead in 2020.
Voters express concerns about Harris’s recent interviews, including a heavily edited “60 Minutes” segment. A significant 85% of voters, including a vast majority from all political affiliations, want the full transcript released. This sentiment spans 88% of Republicans, 87% of Democrats, and 80% of independents, highlighting dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s stance on Israel’s regional conflicts.
Trump Takes Lead in Swing States, Pulls Even with Harris in New Poll pic.twitter.com/M8qFG5e3a7
— Daily Tiding (@dailytiding7) October 14, 2024
Independents are particularly critical of Harris’s media strategy, which includes light-hearted interviews with shows like “Call Her Daddy” and Howard Stern. Fifty-four percent of unaligned voters believe these interviews have harmed her image, with 55% questioning her readiness for the presidency—a concerning sign for her campaign.
As the election approaches, these numbers suggest challenges for Harris, as her campaign’s optimistic message faces mounting scrutiny and anxiety, raising doubts about her capability to handle the presidency.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some common questions asked about this news
How is Trump doing in swing states compared to Harris?
Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% among swing-state voters.
What percentage of independent voters in battleground states support Trump?
44% of independent voters in battleground states support Trump.
How much support does Trump have among black voters?
Trump has 22% support among black voters.
What is the public opinion on Harris’s recent interviews?
85% of voters want the full transcript of Harris’s ’60 Minutes’ interview released.
How do early voters in battleground states lean?
In battleground states, Trump leads early voters 48% to 47%.