CONCORD, N.H. — Richard Anderson drove through a snowstorm last week to see his favorite candidate in the New Hampshire Republican primary. But he’s not sure how far he’ll go to support her if she wins the nomination.
Anderson, a 73-year-old independent voter from Jackson, liked what he heard from Nikki Haley at the Mount Washington Hotel. But he disagrees with the former U.N. ambassador’s plan to pardon former President Donald Trump if he is convicted of any of the crimes he is accused of.
“That bothers me,” he said. “I will still vote for her in the primary, but I will wait and see if she still says so in the general election.”
Haley’s best chance to shake Trump’s grip on the Republican nomination lies in her ability to attract New Hampshire’s independent voters — including some who may not stick with her in November — without alienating too many conservatives . Other Republicans have found the right balance here, most notably John McCain in two Republican Party primaries. But those victories came long before Trump’s rise in politics and Republicans’ rightward shifts both in the state and nationally.
“It’s a very difficult needle to thread,” says Nathan Shrader, an associate professor of politics at New England College, “because if she overtly plays to independent voters, that could be a turnoff for some Republicans. those we know in the Trump era are more conservative than they were a generation ago.”
Democrats cannot vote in the Republican Party primaries, but non-party voters — who make up nearly 40% of New Hampshire’s registered voters — can. That makes them a prime target, even though they are not a monolith.
A CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released Sunday found that a majority of registered Republicans likely to vote in the primaries — 67% — said they planned to vote for Trump. But a majority of those listed as unreported — 58% — said they support Haley.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, also found that more registered Republicans view Haley unfavorably (47%) than favorably (31%) in the state. Trump, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 76% of registered Republicans and unfavorably by only 16%.
Haley was viewed positively by 42% of people who registered themselves as moonlighting, while 32% rated her unfavorably. In contrast, only 34% of the same group view Trump favorably, compared to 59% unfavorably.
Some Haley supporters interviewed at her events are left-wing voters who have little ideological overlap with Haley but are intent on stopping Trump. Others lean Republican and agree with her policies.
Corinne Pullen is a mix of both. Pullen, a retired 68-year-old nurse from Canterbury, said she is impressed by Haley’s “tough and strong” foreign policy and her plans to cut federal spending. She considers Trump a “narcissistic braggadocio buffoon.”
“When I compare these two candidates, it’s a no-brainer who I would feel comfortable and safe with in the White House,” she said.
Trump has turned that crossover appeal into a line of attack, suggesting Haley is backed by “radical left Democrats.” The former president’s campaign argues that Haley will struggle with conservatives in closed primaries like her home state of South Carolina, where the Feb. 24 primary is the next big contest for her and Trump.
“Her entire focus right now … has been on inciting Democrats and behavioral Democrats to hijack the Republican primary in New Hampshire,” Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita told reporters this month.
As if to underscore that point, Trump on Saturday arranged for South Carolina’s current governor, lieutenant governor and several other elected leaders to come to New Hampshire to campaign with him. The day before, he received a stirring endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who appointed Haley to the Senate when she was governor.
However, Haley rejected that move.
“I won South Carolina as governor twice,” she said recently. “I think I know what the favorable area is in South Carolina. We’re going to South Carolina. We’re going to be strong in South Carolina.” She added, “The road will never end here in New Hampshire, that has always been the plan.”
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, is skeptical that Haley can form a coalition strong and diverse enough to defeat Trump in Tuesday’s primaries. Even if she did, “how do you duplicate that somewhere else?” he asked. “The answer is: you don’t. I don’t think you can do that magic trick state after state.”
Unlike McCain, who openly appealed to “Republicans, Independents, Democrats, Libertarians, Vegetarians, all of them,” Haley does not mention any independents in her speech. But the super PAC backing her is filling its mailboxes with flyers citing her support of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Trump critic, and her plans for the economy and debt reduction.
Haley described herself to reporters Thursday as “a conservative who knows how to talk to moderates and independents and not make them feel bad, but make them feel like they belong.”
At the same time, she resisted criticism from Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis that she was not conservative enough.
“Show me where I’m being moderate, because I’m not,” she said.
That didn’t stop Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a moderate Republican who voted for Biden in 2020, from endorsing her on Saturday and urging New Hampshire voters to “show their deep-seated independent streak.” And it doesn’t matter to independent voter Kristen Mansharamani, who described herself as “left” than Haley on abortion, education and other issues but said she believes Haley would be a unifying leader.
“I told my 12-year-old son that I’m looking for the person who I think will remove some of the stagnation and polarization in politics and I think she can do that better than anyone right now ” said Mansharamani, 48, of Lincoln.
In Iowa, Haley was the top candidate for the most anti-Trump Republicans, including those who said the former president had done something illegal in one of the pending criminal cases against him, according to data from AP VoteCast, a wide-ranging survey of likely voters in Iowa before entering the caucuses. Two-thirds of Haley’s caucusgoers said they ultimately would not vote for Trump in the general election.
In New Hampshire, some anti-Trump independents who support Haley say they are unsure whether they will back her in a general election.
Amy Watson, a 59-year-old dental surgeon from Hollis, praised Haley’s tenure as U.N. ambassador and governor but said Haley’s views on environmental issues could be a dealbreaker in November.
“As things develop, I think I’ll consider what she has to say,” she said. “I’m very concerned about global warming, so that’s one area where she might lose me.”
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AP director of public opinion research Emily Swanson in Washington, Associated Press writers Jill Colvin and Joseph Frederick in New Hampshire, and Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report.
