Israel has spent the past few days commemorating the 50th anniversary of the surprise Arab attack on Yom Kippur – the holiest day in Judaism.
Newspaper editorials and documentaries lamented the failure of the then Prime Minister, Golda Meir, to prevent the attack by Egypt and Syria, and the war that followed.
At the same time, the Islamist Hamas group was preparing to mark the anniversary with a major onslaught of missiles.
Such context makes the failure of Israeli intelligence services to detect any signs of this attack utterly baffling.
Israel’s intense electronic surveillance of the Gaza Strip and its use of Palestinian agents has been a byword for national defense for years. Indeed, over the past few weeks, Israeli security forces have cracked down on small groups of terrorists in the Palestinian West Bank – and Israel has appeared safe from any serious threats on its borders.
A man runs in the road as fires burn in Ashkelon, Israel, following rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip initiated by the Islamist militant group Hamas
The failure of Israeli intelligence services to detect any signs of this attack is utterly baffling. Pictured: Hamas fighters crossing border with paragliders
Palestinians celebrate at a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence on Saturday afternoon
A building in Tel Aviv was damaged by a rocket fired by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip on October 7
So how could his intelligence system have missed such an enormous threat from Hamas? Perhaps Israel, like much of the outside world, has become complacent about the possibility of the Middle East ‘powder keg exploding’.
Israelis have barely noticed the increasingly aggressive rhetoric of Hamas in recent days, which has no doubt galvanized its supporters for something big.
Israel was also dealing with its internal political crisis.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Right-wing coalition, beset by corruption allegations, has faced mass protests against his controversial reforms at the courts.
Even members of the Israeli military and intelligence services were taking sides in this political divide. Hamas presumably thought it could exploit this to puncture Israel’s budding relationship with pro-Western Arab regimes, which it so despises.
Once completely rejected by the Arab world when the country was founded in 1948, Israel made a breakthrough in 2019 to widespread recognition by Arab states.
Donald Trump even enticed the Gulf emirates, Bahrain and Morocco to join Egypt and Jordan in opening trade and tourism links as well as diplomatic relations with Israel.
This has left the militant Palestinians in Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza increasingly isolated in their belief that Israel has no right to exist.
Palestinians ride an Israeli military vehicle taken by an army base overrun by Hamas militants near the Gaza Strip fence
A member of the Israeli security forces stands next to a rubble-strewn street in Tel Aviv
Israelis have barely noticed the increasingly aggressive rhetoric of Hamas in recent days, which has no doubt galvanized its supporters for something big. Israel was also dealing with its internal political crisis
Hamas presumably thought it could exploit this to undermine Israel’s burgeoning relationship with pro-Western Arab regimes, which it so despises.
Palestinian militants brandish weapons as they move through Israeli territory on trucks
A rescue worker from the Magen David Adom Disaster Relief Service looks on as cars burn at the site of a rocket attack in Ashkelon, southern Israel
Journalists take cover behind cars as Israeli soldiers take up positions during clashes with Palestinian fighters near the Gevim kibbutz
Shocking footage shared on social media appears to show Palestinian fighters parading the naked body of an Israeli woman on the back of a pickup truck
Footage appears to show hostages being taken to Gaza by Hamas militants earlier today
Their only allies were Iran – Israel’s mortal enemy – and its regional clients, the Assad regime in Syria and the militant Hezbollah group that controls southern Lebanon.
It is the involvement of Iran that could turn this bloody attack into a devastating war. Because the worst threat to Israel’s security, even its existence, comes from Hezbollah, which has acquired sophisticated equipment through Iran’s Syrian ally in Lebanon.
Iran also has a serious military industry. Its drones have been used by Putin in Ukraine, fueling Israel’s fears that Iran’s ayatollahs are intent on developing a nuclear warhead to defeat its missiles.
If Hamas’ relatively low-tech arsenal was capable of causing such devastation within 24 hours, the prospect of Hezbollah providing support with its missile arsenal is a grim prospect. So what next?
While the immediate effect of Hamas’ rocket attacks will be for Israelis to unite against a common enemy, it is not clear how long Netanyahu will benefit from the rally to defend their country.
Accusations are inevitable. People will ask the terrifying question: How did Israel’s super-hawkish leader and his hard-line cabinet fail to foresee that the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War could present an auspicious moment for Hamas?
Israel launched a counter-attack. Pictured: A ball of fire and smoke rises from an explosion on a Palestinian apartment tower after an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City
A tower block in Gaza City is hit by an Israeli airstrike after Palestinian militants strike Israel
Israeli forces launched strikes against targets in Gaza City following attacks today
After all, Netanyahu’s political trump card has always been that he will guarantee Israel’s security. While some may argue that political instability in Israel will ultimately be resolved democratically, a chink in its armor has been irrevocably exposed. With the radicalization of its Arab neighbors on the rise, it could be much more dangerous.
There were terrorist attacks and protests in Egypt. Even in wealthy Gulf states, which are said to be warming to Israel, opinion polls suggest that strong anti-Israel views are the norm, especially among under-30s – more than half their populations.
Unlike the 1973 war, which was started by armies, anything we see in the coming days and months will be a chaotic war between people.
If others are encouraged to join, it will be bloodier than anything seen yet. This is the ultimate goal of Palestinians. Cynical powers, not least Iran, will fan the flames to achieve their common goal.
In the long term, the Islamic Republic wants to wipe Israel off the map. In the short term, it wants to destabilize Gulf monarchs if they do not cut ties with Israel.
We will all feel the pain. Remember, the biggest global consequence of the 1973 war was a rise in oil prices. If instability radiates across the Middle East, energy costs will go through the roof. This would not only help oil-rich Iran, and its ally Russia, but push the West into recession. Bloodshed may now be confined to Israel and Gaza, but the entire Middle East and, indeed, the world, will feel the shock waves.
Mighty Israel was caught napping amid political squabbles: Crisis Research Institute chief MARK ALMOND explores the staggering failure of intelligence services to detect any signs of Hamas’ deadly attack
