Countries are increasingly worried as fertility rates drop, and governments have started offering financial incentives to encourage citizens to have more children.
Population growth has been slowing rapidly. Fertility rates, the average number of children per woman, have been declining. A rate above 2.1 means population growth, while below 2.1 means a decline.
In 2024, global fertility rates are reported at 2.25. Europe, the Americas, and Asia now have rates below or close to two children per woman. Africa’s rate, once nearly seven children per woman in the 1970s, is now almost four and expected to drop below three by 2050 and near two by the century’s end.
Northern America had a rate of 3.76 in 1958, which has fallen to 1.59 in 2024. Asia’s rate is now 1.88, Latin America and the Caribbean are at 1.80, and Europe is at 1.40. Some sources argue that the UN’s figure of 2.25 is actually lower than the replacement level of 2.1.
The IHME Health Data highlights that global fertility declines will reshape population patterns by 2100. By 2050, over three-quarters of countries won’t have high enough births to maintain their populations, increasing to 97 percent by 2100.
For the first time in millennia, birth rates are not keeping up with death rates. However, this doesn’t mean the human population will decline drastically. High fertility rates in low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, will continue driving population growth.
A 2022 UN report projects the world population will rise from 7.6 billion to 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion by 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100, with 83 million people added annually.
These demographic shifts will transform the global economy and international power dynamics, requiring societal reorganisation. Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee from IHME notes the immense implications. Future fertility trends will make migration and global aid networks crucial as countries compete for migrants to sustain economic growth amid sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom.
What Other Media Are Saying
- AEI emphasizes that global birth rates are likely lower than expected, driven by substantial downward revisions to fertility forecasts, with some countries already below the replacement level, potentially leading to depopulation sooner than anticipated. (read more)
- UN projects world population to peak within this century with the global population expected to reach 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, following a projected growth from 8.2 billion in 2024. (read more)
- The Lancet reports dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform population patterns by 2100, with 97% of countries having fertility rates below replacement levels. (read more)
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some common questions asked about this news
Why are countries offering financial incentives to have children?
Countries are offering incentives to counteract falling birth rates and maintain population growth.
What is the current global fertility rate?
Are fertility rates the same worldwide?
No, fertility rates vary. Europe’s rate is 1.40, Asia’s is 1.88, and Africa’s is almost 4.
Will the global population decline due to lower fertility rates?
Despite lower rates, the global population is expected to grow, reaching 11.2 billion by 2100.
How will falling fertility rates impact the global economy?
Falling fertility rates will reconfigure the global economy and international power balance, necessitating societal reorganization.
