The United States is gearing up for a blockbuster hurricane season, with the possibility of 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and up to seven major hurricanes this year.
Meteorologists with AccuWeather warned of a near-record number of storms in the Atlantic Ocean, many of which are expected to directly hit the US, thanks to warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the La Niña weather phenomenon.
Experts predict 20 to 25 named storms in the Atlantic basin, including eight to 12 hurricanes, four to seven major hurricanes and four to six direct impacts to the US.
These numbers are in stark contrast to the historical average, which typically sees fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and four direct impacts to the US.
“AccuWeather hurricane experts have serious and growing concerns about what could be a supercharged hurricane season this year,” said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.
The United States is gearing up for a ‘blockbuster’ hurricane season, with the possibility of 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and up to seven major hurricanes this year
The numbers are in stark contrast to the historical average, which typically sees fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and four direct impacts to the US. Pictured: The wreckage of Darlene Powell’s home following the arrival of Hurricane Idalia in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, last year
“We are very concerned about the risks from tropical storms and hurricanes along the Texas and Louisiana coasts that are greater than historical averages,” Porter added.
Porter said the 2024 hurricane season would be “explosive” due to the return of La Nina and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean.
“The current El Niño pattern is forecast to transition to a La Nina pattern in the second half of the hurricane season,” he said.
La Nina, which means Little Girl in Spanish, usually leads to more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean due to less wind shear or disruptive winds high in the atmosphere.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva explains the effect of La Nina by comparing wind shear to a stack of pancakes.
“A tall, neat stack is what a tropical system wants to be, but wind shear can cause some pancakes to shift and the stack can fall over,” DaSilva said.
With the opposite effect of El Nino, the faster the transition to La Nina occurs, the more likely the hurricane season is to be active.
The other important factor in AccuWeather’s Atlantic hurricane forecast is plenty of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.
“Sea surface temperatures are well above historical averages in much of the Atlantic basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the main developing region (for hurricanes),” DaSilva explained.
Water temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean reached the same levels as normal in mid-July in mid-February this year.
And water temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR) at the end of January were 65% higher than the following year.
As the days get longer and the Northern Hemisphere moves into spring and summer, temperatures can only rise.
Porter said the 2024 hurricane season would be “explosive” due to the return of La Nina and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean. Pictured: Pickup trucks and debris litter a canal in Horseshoe Beach following the passage of Hurricane Idalia
With the opposite effect of El Nino, the faster the transition to La Nina occurs, the more likely the hurricane season is to be active. In the photo: a damaged building after the arrival of Hurricane Idalia
Satellite photo from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Idalia, center, approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast
Hurricane Idalia tore through Florida’s Gulf Coast as it barreled through the state’s Big Bend region
“Any storm that forms will have the potential to strengthen rapidly, even close to land, due to the exceptionally warm waters,” Porter said.
“We expect the Gulf Coast, especially the Texas coast, to be at greater risk of direct impacts from a tropical system this year,” AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok said.
The Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas are also at a higher than average risk of an attack from a tropical system.
“All residents and advocacy groups along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan and always be fully prepared for an immediate impact,” DaSilva added.
AccuWeather predicted as many as 15 named storms last year, but there ended up being more: 19 named storms and four direct US impacts.
Tropical Storm Harold, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, has made landfall in Texas, issuing a severe weather warning to a million coastal residents.
The storm also hit Padre Island after forming overnight in the Gulf of Mexico before reaching the Lone Star State.
Harold brought heavy rain to parts of South Texas and created flood watches in the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend regions. It also created a minor flood watch near Ruidoso, New Mexico.
Hurricane Idalia was the storm of the year, ripping through Florida and the Carolinas, causing at least two deaths and significant property damage.
According to CNN, the Category 3 hurricane became the strongest storm to hit the Sunshine State in more than 125 years.
Extremely warm ocean waters allowed Idalia to unleash his anger and reveal his power as trees and structures were damaged in the Big Bend state and parts of Georgia.
Heavy tides seen in New Jersey’s Seaside Park after Hurricane Ophelia in September
Hurricane Ophelia was next when it made landfall in the state on September 23, as it first made its way to eastern North Carolina before shifting to southern Virginia.
The storm’s rainy conditions then moved to the East Coast in New Jersey and New York, causing flooding.
In New Jersey, the wind and deluge caused disruption, and waves of 10 feet high were recorded near the coast.
Officials at the Cleveland Park Metro Station in Washington, D.C. had sandbagged the area and all other flood-prone stations in preparation for the storm.
In North Carolina, a total of 2,600 people were without power, and in New Jersey, 5,800 people were blacked out.
‘We don’t want people to panic. We want them to be prepared and informed,” Porter said.
‘A little advanced planning early in the year, before the risks materialize, goes a long way toward better preparation. Then you don’t panic if there is a risk. You execute the plan you have.”
