China's 'mysterious' pneumonia wave could hit Britain in the short term, experts warned today.
Officials in Beijing last week stoked fears of a new pandemic after raising alarm about an unusual spike in cases among children.
Authorities ruled out a new virus, instead blaming a winter wave of respiratory illness, including an insect called mycoplasma pneumoniae.
Since China raised its flag, cases of 'myco' have exploded in the Netherlands, Denmark and parts of the US.
Leading experts have blamed the fallout on Covid lockdowns and warned other countries could have a 'bad year'. Pandemic measures interrupted the spread of routine insects and weakened immunity among populations.
Britain itself could see a rise in myco cases in the coming weeks, scientists have claimed.
A person carrying a child to Beijing Children's Hospital last month. Experts say the country's stricter and longer lockdown may have reduced immunity against pathogens similar to other countries' Mycoplasma pneumoniae.
This graph from the UK Health Security Agency shows the average number of Mycoplasma pneumoniae cases reported in England and Wales over three-week periods between 2010 and mid-2020. It shows how cases tend to rise over three- to four-year periods to rise.
The bacterial infection usually causes a flu-like illness, which is also called 'walking pneumonia' because of its mildness. Children are especially vulnerable.
Professor Ian Jones, a virologist at the University of Reading, told MailOnline: 'Since we have a bit of a physical break with Europe, we might get away with it this season.
“The important point is that this kind of 'recovery' should be expected and the public health system should be aware of it.”
He added that it is unlikely that the recent rise in myco is due to a new contagious or more deadly strain.
Instead, Professor Jones attributed the wave emerging around the world to a lack of immunity in the population following lockdown and anti-Covid measures.
Masks, social distancing, improved hand hygiene and a lack of mixing of people reduced the spread of other non-Covid pathogens during the early years of the pandemic, leading to a concept called “immunity debt.”
Bugs can strike harder than normal if parts of the population have not been exposed to a bug, and as a result have built up a defense mechanism against it.
Numerous countries, including the UK and the US, have experienced a rise in winter viral pathogens such as influenza and RSV following the lockdown.
In the case of myco, Professor Jones said: 'Circulating cases would have generated immunity in the population, particularly among children at school, which would then have held the cases at bay for a few years, only to cycle again a few years later. immunity had waned.”
'Restrictions on movement (due to lockdowns) would have prevented a natural immunization cycle from occurring.'
This means there would be a “larger susceptible population when the next natural rebound occurs,” he said.
Professor Jones added: 'By this reasoning we should expect something like this in most countries that have experienced a lockdown, although it is not certain when the rebound will occur.'
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said myco was “somewhat unusual” compared to other respiratory pathogens.
Myco itself makes big waves every few years because of waning immunity, he said.
He added: 'This is probably because immunity against myco lasts a little longer than immunity against flu or Covid, although we still don't know how long immunity lasts.'
Professor Hunter added that the last global wave apparently hit in 2019/2020, just before Covid.
This combined with the slower transmission of myco compared to other winter bugs could have led to the current 'build-up' of cases being observed in multiple countries.
He also said the outbreak in China could be worse because of Beijing's stricter and longer Covid lockdown, creating a bigger immunity debt than in places like Britain.
“This is the first full winter in which China has no blanket Covid restrictions,” he said.
“Last year we had our first open winter and saw a heavy flu and RSV season.
“So China has had another year to further reduce the population's immunity to these infections and so I suspect this year is particularly bad for them.”
The above image shows the lungs during 'white lung syndrome' or acute respiratory distress syndrome, which is diagnosed via the white spots or opaque areas that appear in the lungs. The above patient was a 57-year-old man in 2014
Beijing previously reported an increase in flu-like illnesses since mid-October.
But the outbreak only hit the news earlier this month when local media reported that hospitals were becoming overwhelmed by the number of cases.
The wave was accompanied by chilling images of Chinese workers in hazardous materials disinfecting spaces and public health warnings to wear face masks and socially distance, in echoes of the early days of the Covid pandemic.
Like Denmark, which recently reported an epidemic, Britain tends to experience a myco peak every three to four years as part of a normal cycle.
Data collected by the UK Health Security Agency shows that a small spike in cases was recorded in early 2020, and before that in 2016 and 2012.
It comes as more parts of the US begin reporting their own surge of childhood pneumonia cases.
Massachusetts has now joined Ohio in reporting a spike, with the latter reporting 142 cases detected since August, a figure health officials described as “extremely high.”
Although there were initial concerns that the outbreak in China could be caused by a new pathogen, these have slowly subsided.
The surge in cases sparked global concern over a perceived lack of transparency from China when Covid was first spotted in Wuhan in late 2019, shortly before the virus swept the world.
Earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) asked China for more data on the outbreak of pneumonia in children.
This followed the UN agency's first, and unusually public, request for information from Beijing earlier last month.
Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, a WHO epidemiologist, said the agency is “following China's lead” as hospitals across the country continue to be overwhelmed.
Face masks and social distancing are again being recommended in China, in a chilling echo of the early days of Covid.
The country's pneumonia spike is being called 'white lung syndrome' because of the way lung damage shows up on medical scans.
