The college football season will officially kick off in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday with this non-conference matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame is a fringe playoff contender, and the Irish should play good football this season.
That said, the Midshipmen have some advantages in this neutral-field Week 0 game, mainly because of their triple-option rushing attack.
Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction
As you probably know, Navy runs a triple-option rushing attack.
The Mids were fine at running the rock last year, finishing 44th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush play.
They were much better by Rush Success Rate, finishing seventh nationally, meaning they were gaining the necessary yardage on all downs to move the chains (defined as 50% on yards required on first down, 70% on second down and 100% on third and/or fourth down).
There is a new head coach (Brian Newbury), a new defensive coordinator (PJ Volker) and a new offensive coordinator (Grant Chestnut), so it seems counterintuitive to trust this team in the early season.
However, Navy has a ton of returning production.
While there will be scheme changes (they’re expected to run the Kennesaw State offense, a more spread-out option offense involving a short-yardage passing game), I expect the rushing attack to remain the focus.
The Midshipmen return seven of their top 10 offensive linemen and 78% of total offensive line snaps, according to Collin Wilson of The Action Network.
They also return 84% of their total rushing yards, including their top two quarterbacks (Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline) and top rushing option, Daba Fofana (841 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, six TDs).
I admit I’m not 100% sure who will be starting at quarterback for the Mids.
Lavatai was injured last season (ACL against Temple) and rehabbed through Spring practices, opening the door for Arline (who started the last four games in 2022) and sophomore Blake Horvath to earn reps.
Per On3.com, coach Newberry said he has “three players [the team] can roll out at quarterback and feel pretty comfortable with.”
My best guess is that it will be a by-committee approach between the three, with Lavatai and Horvath earning the majority of playing time.
Lavatai likely runs more of the triple-option offense, while Horvath will captain the short passing attack.
Still, whoever is under center, I expect the offense to perform up to its usual level because of the returning experience.
The coaching changes don’t matter as much, considering that Navy wants to run the rock and has the returning, experienced personnel to do so.
Notre Dame’s defense should be a top-10 unit.
That said, their rush defense was lackluster last season. The Irish finished 103rd in EPA per rush play allowed, 65th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 61st in Defensive Line Yards.
Notre Dame got gashed on the ground by USC, Marshall and this Navy team. All three of those teams totaled over 200 rushing yards against the Irish.
While Notre Dame has an elite secondary and a solid linebacking corps (led by JD Bertrand), they lost three key players on the defensive line (Vyper Foskey, Jayson Ademilola, Justin Ademilola).
Several young, talented players can step up on the line, and the unit gets a boost with the portal acquisition of Ohio State transfer Javontae Jean-Baptiste.
But it’s not out of the question that the front won’t be 100% on Day 1, which spells trouble against a well-oiled option attack.
Given the fresh faces on the Irish defense, I think Navy will be able to piece together long, sustained, rush-heavy drives that drain the clock. That will keep the ball out of Sam Hartman’s hands and keep this game from getting out of hand – it’s hard to cover a three-touchdown spread when the clock is continuously running.
Right on cue: Let’s talk about Hartman and the offense.
Do we expect the offense to click from the jump? New offensive coordinator Gerard Parker has never been a play-caller, and Hartman is still new to South Bend.
The offensive line projects as elite behind tackle Joe Alt, so Hartman should be well-protected.
But will Hartman have the weapons to push the ball downfield?
The Irish lost three of their top four pass catchers last year, including All-World tight end Michael Mayer.
The receiving core does return Jayden Thomas (25 receptions, 362 yards, three TDs) and has several blue-chip recruits, and I expect someone to step up and command targets.
But I’m unsure which one, and I doubtful we find that answer by the end of Week 0.
Notre Dame may need to rely on their talented backfield and rushing game to tread water, but that would also drain the clock and make it less likely they cover a three-possession spread.
Ultimately, this game projects as a lower-scoring, rush-heavy grinder that finishes quicker than most college football games, resulting in the heavy underdog staying within the number.
To be fair, that’s how most Service Academy games are played.
Navy, Army and Air Force are a combined 42-22-2 against the spread (ATS) as more than two-touchdown underdogs since 2006, covering by an average margin of 5.5 points.
A $100 bettor would be up over $1700 betting on the Service Academies in every one of those games, producing a 26.8% return on investment.
It’s hard to cover big numbers against the triple-option!
Betting on College Football?
Meanwhile, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman is 1-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his short career, with notable outright losses against Marshall (as 20.5-point favorites) and Stanford (as 16.5-point favorites).
I expect Notre Dame to improve with another year in Freeman’s system – I’m relatively high on the program’s future.
But this team played down to competition last year, and I don’t like the matchup with Navy.
I expect Navy to successfully move the chains, drain the clock and stay within the number for 60 minutes – just as they did last season, when they lost 35-32 against the Irish as 16-point dogs.
The Action Network’s Analytics team projects Navy as a 14.5-point underdog here, giving us a six-point edge over the market.
Navy vs. Notre Dame pick
Navy +20.5 (-110) | Play to +17.5 (-110)
