CONCORD, N.H. — CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — Donald Trump’s bid to march toward the Republican presidential nomination may face its biggest challenge on Tuesday, when voters in New Hampshire hold the nation’s first primary.
The former president enters the race buoyed by his record performance at the Iowa caucuses last week. But New Hampshire has a more moderate political tradition and primary rules that allow unaffiliated voters to enter the race. Trump-backed MAGA candidates have had a tough time here in recent years.
Nikki Haley hopes to exploit these vulnerabilities. The former U.N. ambassador is the only remaining candidate in the Republican Party primaries aimed at defeating Trump outright. After a disappointing finish in Iowa, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is essentially surrendering New Hampshire and focusing on the February 24 primary in South Carolina.
A Haley victory would usher in a more competitive phase of a primary that Trump has dominated so far. A Trump victory, however, could create a sense of inevitability around the prospect that he could become the Republican nominee for a third time in a row.
Don’t forget that the Democrats also have a primary. President Joe Biden is not on the ballot after making South Carolina the first formal stop on the Democratic primary ballot. But New Hampshire is sticking to tradition and organizing its own Democratic primaries anyway.
Here’s what we’ll be watching on Tuesday:
If Trump’s rivals can’t beat him in New Hampshire, they may not be able to stop him anywhere else.
Tuesday’s election has essentially become a one-on-one fight between Trump and Haley, which is exactly what Trump’s Republican critics have been calling for. Haley appears competitive and enjoys support among moderate voters and independents. She has also received the support of popular New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu.
Yet Trump remains the favorite.
Sensing a knockout blow, the former president has enlisted his growing army of prominent supporters in recent days to help demonstrate his strength. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Trump’s former opponent, endorsed Trump at a rally in New Hampshire this weekend. New York Rep. Elise Stefanik and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance stood for Trump on Saturday before an appearance by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster.
A significant number of New Hampshire Republicans insist they will never support Trump. And without a competitive Democratic primary in the way, many left-leaning, unaffiliated voters could decide to support Haley. But that doesn’t change the fact that Republican primaries are usually decided by Republicans, and Trump’s hold on the base appears stronger than ever.
Still, New Hampshire loves a comeback story (just ask Bill Clinton), so we’re not ruling anything out.
More than any issue or shortcoming, Trump’s fate may depend most on who actually turns out to vote on Tuesday.
Iowa had one of the lowest turnouts in recent history during last week’s caucuses. Low-turnout elections generally favor the candidate with the strongest support among the party base. And in 2024 that will be Trump.
But Haley’s team has tried to expand the electorate in New Hampshire by appealing to less ideological moderate Republicans and left-leaning independents.
New Hampshire law allows unaffiliated voters to participate in either party’s nominating contest. Democrats are not allowed to vote in the Republican party’s primaries, although voters already had the option to change their registration in October.
Haley needs a big turnout to have a chance on Tuesday. And that’s exactly what government officials expect.
New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan predicted that 322,000 voters would participate in the Republican primary, which would be a record high. On the Democratic side, he expects only 88,000, since there is virtually no competition.
To beat Trump, Haley will likely need more than record-high turnout overall — she’ll also need to turn out unaffiliated voters in record numbers. Trump’s team is skeptical. And history is not on her side.
It will be hard to ignore DeSantis’ decline once all the votes are counted on Tuesday.
Florida’s governor first visited the state in June as the frontrunner in the 2024 primaries. Seven months later, he has been forced to surrender New Hampshire before a single vote has been cast because of his dismal numbers here following his 30-thousand beating points in Iowa.
DeSantis spent the weekend campaigning in South Carolina, where the primaries are in five weeks, trying to distance himself from what is expected to be an ugly ending here.
We’re curious to see if DeSantis’ departure actually helps Trump, as most DeSantis supporters had positive views of the former president.
It’s also worth wondering whether Tuesday is the last primary day for DeSantis as the 2024 candidate. During a brief appearance in New Hampshire last week before rushing to South Carolina, he said he would remain in the race alone if there was a path to victory.
If he gets embarrassed again on Tuesday, his shrinking path could disappear altogether.
Publicly and privately, Democratic leaders have repeatedly acknowledged that they fear Haley far more than Trump in a future election contest against Biden. We’re about to find out if the Republican primaries agree.
Haley has spent months telling voters that without Trump’s chaos and political baggage, she would be better positioned to defeat Biden in November. That argument didn’t help her much in Iowa, where she finished right behind DeSantis.
She is betting that voters in the swing state of New Hampshire will place more value on her longer-term political appeal. Sununu, the popular Republican governor of New Hampshire, has been at Haley’s side for weeks, reminding voters of Trump’s dismal record in national elections since he entered the White House.
It is unclear whether the message has resonated.
If not, it’s because Trump has convinced Republican voters that he — not Haley — is the most electable candidate for the general election. That’s a risky bet, given his extraordinary legal troubles, the stunning attack he inspired on the U.S. Capitol and his proven record of alienating suburban voters in consecutive elections.
Biden’s unpopularity undoubtedly clouds the issue.
Still, New Hampshire voters have a chance Tuesday to cast a strategic vote based on the one issue that seems to matter more than everything else in contemporary politics: the ability to defeat the other side.
It may not be the headline, but New Hampshire Democrats will also vote for their presidential candidate on Tuesday. And as much as Biden’s team would like you to think they don’t care what the outcome is, they are paying attention.
Biden will obviously not participate in the New Hampshire vote.
He is avoiding New Hampshire altogether after pushing the Democratic National Committee to break tradition and award the nation’s opening primary to South Carolina, a much more diverse state that will vote on February 3. Outraged by Biden’s decision, the ‘Live Free or Die’ state ignored the president’s wishes and will host its own unsanctioned Democratic primary anyway.
There are several lesser-known Democrats on the ballot, including Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and progressive activist Maryanne Williamson. The president’s allies in the state are eager to demonstrate Biden’s strength despite his absence and are encouraging voters to write in Biden’s name.
The outcome will not affect the number of delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination. But a disappointing result, even in a write-in campaign, would mean an unwanted embarrassment as Biden tries to improve his political standing ahead of the fall campaign.
