ANNAPOLIS, Md. — Rebuilding the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore could take 18 months to several years, experts say, while the cost could be at least $400 million — or more than double that.
It all depends on factors that are still largely unknown. They range from the design of the new bridge to how quickly state officials can navigate the bureaucracy of approving permits and awarding contracts.
Realistically, the project could take five to seven years, said Ben Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University.
“The turnaround time for air conditioning equipment for a home renovation is currently about 16 months, right?” Schafer continued, “So it’s like you’re telling me that in two years they’re going to build a whole bridge? I want it to be true, but I think empirically it doesn’t feel right to me.”
Others are more optimistic about the possible timeline: Sameh Badie, an engineering professor at George Washington University, said the project could take just 18 months to two years.
The Key Bridge collapsed Tuesday, killing six crew members working on the span, after the Dali freighter plowed into one of its supports. Officials are busy cleaning up and rebuilding after the accident, which closed the city’s busy port and part of Baltimore’s beltway.
The disaster is similar in some ways to the deadly collapse of Florida’s Sunshine Skyway Bridge, which was struck by a freighter in Tampa Bay in 1980. Construction of the new bridge took five years, came 19 months late and exceeded budget by $20 million. it opened in 1987.
But experts say it’s better to look at more recent bridge disasters to get an idea of how quickly rebuilding can happen.
Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, cited the case of the Interstate 35W bridge in Minnesota, which collapsed into the Mississippi River in 2007. The new span was completed in less than fourteen months.
“It’s the best comparison we have for a project like this,” Tymon said. “They have done a great job of getting the approvals necessary to rebuild that as quickly as possible.”
Tymon expects various government agencies to work together to push through permits, environmental and other matters.
“It doesn’t mean all the right boxes won’t be checked; they will,” Tymon said. “It will only be done more efficiently, because everyone knows this has to be done as quickly as possible.”
A looming problem is the source of financing. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the federal government will pay for the new bridge, but that remains to be seen.
“Hopefully Congress will be able to come together to make these resources available as quickly as possible so that doesn’t become a source of delay,” Tymon said.
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota helped quickly secure funding to rebuild the I-35W bridge in her state. But she said replacing the Baltimore span could be more complicated.
She noted that the I-35W bridge, a federal highway, was a much busier roadway with about 140,000 vehicle crossings per day, compared to about 31,000 for the Maryland bridge.
“But where there’s a will, there’s a way, and you can get the emergency funding,” Klobuchar said. “It happened all over the country when disasters happened. And the fact that this is such a large port also makes it worthwhile to ensure that this is all taken care of.”
Badie of George Washington University said the cost could be between $500 million and $1 billion, with design being the biggest variable.
For example, a suspension bridge like San Francisco’s Golden Gate will cost more, while a cable-stayed bridge like Florida’s Skyway Sunshine Bridge, which handles the weight using cables and towers, would be cheaper.
No matter what is built, steel is expensive these days and there is a backlog in I-beams, Badie said. Moreover, the limited number of construction companies that can handle such a project are already busy with other jobs.
“A project like this is going to be accelerated, so everything is going to cost a lot more,” Badie said.
Hota GangaRao, an engineering professor at West Virginia University, said the project could cost as little as $400 million. But that is only if the pier foundations of the old bridge are used; designers may want to place the new supports further away from the shipping channels to avoid another collision.
“That will be more steel, more complicated construction and more checks and balances,” GangaRao said. “It all makes sense.”
Norma Jean Mattei, professor emeritus of engineering at the University of New Orleans, said replacing the Key Bridge will likely take several years. Even if it is a priority, the process of designing the span, obtaining permits and hiring contractors takes a lot of time. And then you have to build it.
“It is quite a process to actually get such a bridge into operation,” she says.
