The thrill of football is in the air, and the Buffalo Bills are in dire need of a win. Despite their defensive lineup being riddled with injuries and the recent loss of tight end Dawson Knox, the Bills remain hopeful. Their performance in the last three games has been less than stellar, with two losses under their belt. However, the upcoming “Thursday Night Football” game against the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers presents a golden opportunity to turn things around.
Two weeks prior, James Cook’s performance on the field was nothing short of impressive. Despite sharing field time with Latavius Murray, Cook managed to clock 71 yards against the New York Giants. The expectation is that Cook will once again rise to the occasion against the Bucs. Murray, who is primarily utilised as a goal-line back and touchdown vulture, hasn’t had the same impact as Cook, with Buffalo using him at a near 50-50 split.
The Bills have a penchant for putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands, who throws it early and often. However, a shift in strategy towards a more rush-heavy approach is anticipated, especially as the game spread is north of a touchdown. This suggests that Cook will be in the spotlight, carrying the ball significantly.
Murray’s record pales in comparison to Cook’s, who has an average of 4.8 yards per carry this season and ranks sixth in the NFL for gains of 10 yards or more. Cook’s prowess, both in terms of efficiency and explosiveness, makes him one of the most powerful running backs in the league.
The Buccaneers’ rush defence is not without its issues. Despite not having been significantly impacted by any player other than D’Andre Swift, their rush defence grade stands at a bottom-five 57.2, according to PFF.
In the last two weeks, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Alvin Kamara have all broken the 50-yard mark against the Bucs, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the Bucs’ rush defence. Additionally, the potential loss of defensive tackle Vita Vea, who is currently questionable, leaves a significant gap to be filled by Greg Gaines, who has a rush defence grade of 49.4.
Given these circumstances, Cook’s prop sitting around 50.5 yards seems underestimated. In games where Cook has had 13 or more carries, he has always surpassed 50 yards. With the Bills’ recent performance in mind, it’s evident that Cook’s involvement should increase. The offensive line’s ranking in adjusted line yards and stuffed rate, and Allen’s underwhelming performance under center, could lead to more pressure on the ground game.
Interestingly, although the Bills’ two main running backs had a near 50-50 timeshare last week, Murray had only four carries compared to Cook’s 13. This clearly indicates that Cook is the preferred RB1 in Buffalo.
The Action Projections slate Cook for 61 yards, underscoring the value of the Bills’ running back. Cook’s capability to shine in prime time and exceed expectations makes him a player to watch. Alternative lines, such as 75+ or 100+, could also provide long shot opportunities for supporters.
