Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) announcement this week that he would not seek re-election won’t change the 2024 Senate math for Republicans — who are as bullish as ever about a red run
In contrast to their beating in the 2022 midterm elections — the GOP is insisting that 2024 will be a better year.
In November, the GOP lost a seat in Pennsylvania and failed to pick up any new ones, leaving it two votes shy of taking the majority.
Party leaders say the 2024 map — when 33 seats are up for grabs — offers uniquely rosy prospects.
“We are excited to compete on favorable terrain this cycle. The [National Republican Senatorial Committee] is going to recruit top-tier candidates, develop a winning message, and raise the resources we need to ensure we win a Republican majority in 2024,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana) told The Post.
Daines, the new chair of the NRSC, and his colleagues note that three ruby red states in the 2024 cycle, West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are currently represented by Democrats.
They also insist they are competitive in at least three states Biden narrowly won.
Veteran Democratic political consultant James Carville said his party needed to focus on candidate quality in 2024.
“People need to wake up. It will be a very daunting Senate map for Democrats. Nobody can argue that,” he said. “It is a bad year.”
Democrats and independents aligned with them will be defending 22 seats in total while Republicans will guard just 11.
The GOP will be playing defense in strongholds like Utah, Nebraska, and Mississippi.
Here’s how the battlegrounds are shaping up:
Montana
Daines’ home state is one of his top targets.
His colleague from Big Sky Country, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, has beaten the odds before in the state — but things have gotten redder over the years.
Montana went for Trump by 16 points in the 2020 election.
The governor and both members of Congress are now Republicans.
In two of Tester’s last three wins, he did not receive more than 50% of the vote.
In February Tester said he would seek another term, and told MSNBC in December that he “feels good about his chances.”
Republican grandees believe they have a winning candidate in former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, but he may yet face a primary from Montana GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale.
West Virginia
The heart of coal country is more hostile for Democrats today than just about anywhere.
Trump won the state in 2020 by 39 points — his largest margin of victory.
And yet Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd — a former “exalted cyclops” of the Ku Klux Klan who became a liberal icon — represented West Virginia for more than 50 years until his death in 2010.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a popular former governor, has kept the seat in Democratic hands.
Republicans have repeatedly blown opportunities to oust him.
Manchin, who has not confirmed he will run again, has survived in part because of his willingness to stand up to liberals, including socialists like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Manchin has said he would make a final decision in December.
“Defeating Joe Manchin is our highest priority, and we are fully capable and ready to send him into permanent political retirement,” Tony M. Hodge, co-chairman of the state Republican Party, said.
Republicans have spent months courting the state’s wealthy and popular GOP governor Jim Justice — who got into the race in April.
Polling indicates he is the only one who could beat Manchin.
West Virginia congressman Alex Mooney is also vying for the seat.
Ohio
Once a swing state, Ohio has trended sharply to the right, supporting Trump in 2020 by an 8-point margin.
While Republicans faired poorly in the 2022 midterms, they picked up the Buckeye state’s other Senate seat, won by author and venture capitalist J. D. Vance.
Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown handily put away GOP challengers in 2006, 2012, and 2018, but Republicans are hoping his time is finally up.
“Sherrod Brown is vulnerable. He represents an Ohio that’s no longer there anymore. He ran as fiscal left wing, social centrist, very midwestern — but he doesn’t live up to those standards anymore, and that Democratic Party doesn’t exist anymore,” said Ryan Girdusky, a GOP political strategist who helped elect Vance.
Matt Dolan, a popular GOP state senator, has jumped into the race and the National Republican Senatorial Committee is running TV ads.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also seeking the nomination.
A third candidate. Bernie Moreno recently made headlines after floating the idea of reparations to white people.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has become a national swing state.
After narrowly backing former President Trump in the 2016 election, the state went for Biden in 2020 by just 20,000 votes.
In 2022, Wisconsin’s GOP Sen. Ron Johnson managed to hold onto his seat but was widely considered the party’s most vulnerable incumbent in the midterms.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a longtime Democratic incumbent is seeking re-election in 2024.
Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein is the most significant Republican to emerge so far to challenge Baldwin.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is looking to recruit Eric Hobde or Scott Mayer — both successful businessmen.
More well-known candidates like Rep. Mike Gallagher, a popular GOP congressman from Green Bay, have publicly bowed out.
“People like Tammy Baldwin,” said one top Democratic Senate insider, who warned against GOP overconfidence. “She works on local issues, which is something Republicans have never figured out how to do. They only speak nationally. She travels the state and she has a really strong regional staff from rural to more urban and she knows how to speak in each region.”
Arizona
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema raised eyebrows when she dumped Democrats in December to formally become an independent.
Sinema’s maverick voting record has long upset party activists who were itching to launch a primary against her.
Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego is challenging her, telling Politico that he’s “already spoken to a lot of national Democratic donors.”
Corbin Trent, a progressive political operative and one-time comms director for AOC, said a Republican in 2024 is “not off the table. I would give them 60-40 leaning their way if you have Sinema and a Democrat running against a Republican.”
Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 10,000 votes.
For now, however, polls show Gallego beating both Sinema and a potential GOP challenger.
Michigan
Michigan generally leans Democrat, but Republicans have been buoyed by the decision of the state’s popular Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow not to seek reelection.
Michigan famously swung for Trump in 2016 — playing a key role in delivering him to the White House, but went back to Biden in 2020.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Flint), a popular moderate, announced she would seek to replace Stabenow.
Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan State Board of Education, is also seeking the nomination.
“The Good Doctor” actor Hill Harper is also running.
On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers is running as well as Nikki Snyder, a member of the Michigan State Board of Education.
“If Republicans spend and run a smart candidate, we are going to have this as a potential pickup,” said Garrett Ventry, a GOP consultant. “Dems are going to have to play defense in deep red states, too.”
Rep. John James, former congressman Fred Upton, and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon have all also been floated.
