As we get a bit deeper into the summer movie season (even though technically it’s still spring), the studios are starting to drop bigger and bigger titles every week. Sony’s betting on nostalgia this weekend with Karate Kid: Legends, a film that tries to connect the old-school Karate Kid movies (and Cobra Kai) to the Jaden Smith and Jackie Chan-led Karate Kid movie from the 2010s. While the early reviews (including ours) have been negative, many believe that the notoriety of Cobra Kai, and the modest budget, will help turn this movie into a solid money maker, with it having an outside chance at a second-place finish.
That said, I believe a third-place result is more likely, with it seeming that Disney’s Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning aren’t likely to be dethroned from first and second place until next weekend, when Lionsgate drops their John Wick spinoff, Ballerina. Lilo & Stitch will likely have a big drop-off due to how front-loaded movies that open on Memorial Day usually are, with it looking at about $60 million (that said, the movie is still printing money).
Meanwhile, The Final Reckoning should do about $30 million in week two if word-of-mouth has held up (Cruise is still promoting the heck out of the movie, with our own Taylor James Johnson recently tracking him down in San Antonio). Karate Kid: Legends should do about $25 million (although many box office pundits believe it will do more – I’m not convinced). I think Final Destination: Bloodlines will likely nab fourth place with $10 million, and A24’s Bring Her Back might have a shot at fifth place with $8 million, if Sinners and/or Thunderbolts don’t take the slot.
Here are our predictions:
- Lilo & Stitch: $60 million
- Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning: $30 million
- Karate Kid: Legends: $25 million
- Final Destination: Bloodlines: $10 million
- Bring Her Back: $8 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
