Unpredictable weather conditions and unusually warm winter temperatures have increased the risk of wildfires, a top fire official has warned.
Greg Mullins, former New South Wales Fire Commissioner (2003-2017), told Daily Mail Australia that even short periods of dry heat can dehydrate the country enough to set large parts of the country on fire.
Mullins pointed out that a heatwave in northern Australia had already sparked bushfires, while strong winds were blowing in the southeast. If this were to continue during the fire season, very dangerous fires could occur.
He said increasingly erratic weather conditions are making it more difficult to prevent major fires.
The latest spring bushfire forecast showed that unusual rainfall in Queensland and the Northern Territory had increased fuel supplies, increasing the fire risk.
Parts of western Victoria and eastern South Australia are also at increased risk of an early start to the fire season. Authorities have warned that Tasmania could do the same if the hot, dry conditions persist.
However, Mr Mullins warned that long-term weather forecasts for the season have become unreliable due to climate change.
“We saw the Black Summer, the worst fires we had ever had after the hottest, driest summer on record, and the following year the worst flooding many places had ever seen,” he said.
The dramatic weather changes also made it much more difficult to prevent fires, as sudden, strong winds could cause fires to spread out of control.
Former NSW Fire and Rescue Commissioner Greg Mullins (pictured) has warned that unpredictable weather could lead to major bushfires and flooding this year
He has been a professional and volunteer firefighter for more than 50 years and believes firefighters will be helping Australians across the country with fires and other emergencies this year.
“The windows are closing so we can apply our best mitigation tool across large areas,” Mullins said. “It’s like fighting with one arm behind our back.”
While this bushfire season is unlikely to be as disastrous as the Black Summer of 2019/20, the risk of fires could still be acute.
‘Flash droughts’, short periods of intense heat and dryness, can turn areas that have recently experienced rainfall into highly flammable conditions suitable for fire within weeks.
‘If the vegetation is stressed, dying and easily burned, then all you need is wind.
‘If it’s warm and the humidity is low, and there’s wind, then you’ve got a problem.’
Mr Mullins expects major fires to break out in the coming months and flooding in some states, forcing emergency workers to cross the border to provide assistance.
“I know that today’s leaders are very prepared at all times because the potential for extreme weather events is much greater than it was 10 or 20 years ago,” he said.
He warned that fighting fires could be more challenging this season as firefighting aircraft loaned from the US may be left stranded due to the longer fire season.
Mr Mullins warned that California is expected to experience its worst fire season, just as Australia’s fire season intensifies.
“The world’s resources are finite… In California, Colorado and Idaho, fire seasons are being extended so the big planes we lease for the summer don’t have to fly anymore,” he said.
‘When there are big fires now, there are only one or two big firefighting aircraft in Australia and the big helicopters are all in California and Colorado.’
According to Rob Webb, executive director of AFAC, climate change has extended the wildfire season in some regions, but in northern areas spring is typically the peak.
“There is no doubt that our fire seasons are getting longer due to climate change, but the peak of the fire season in northern Australia is typically at this time of year, August to September, and the season continues south into the summer months,” he explained.
“But the important thing is that Australia still experiences bushfires during a normal season. And whether it’s spring or summer, it’s important that people are prepared for this.”
His biggest concern is the possibility of “sudden droughts” that could suddenly turn the country into a hotbed of catastrophic wildfires within weeks (pictured, the Black Summer fires of 2019).
Large parts of Australia are at a higher than average risk of being hit by ‘significant’ bushfires this coming season (pictured is AFAC’s spring bushfire outlook)
The firefighter said the likelihood of extreme weather events has increased over the past two decades and is becoming increasingly devastating (pictured: Floods in Moree, NSW, in 2022)
A number of heat records have been broken in recent weeks, including the highest temperature in an Australian winter, which was reached on August 26 in Yampi Sound, northeast of Broome in Western Australia.
The maximum temperature of 41.6°C surpassed the record of 41.2°C also set in Western Australia in August 2020.
In the north-west of the Northern Territory, temperatures of over 40 degrees Celsius were reached, setting a new record for August. On 24 August, South Africa broke the monthly record when the mercury reached 39.4 degrees Celsius in Oodnadatta, almost 3 degrees higher than the record set in 1946.
Large-scale bushfires have already broken out in several states, including dozens of fires in New South Wales after unusually warm late winter weather.
Mr Webb said the warm conditions leading up to spring were ideal for fires to spread.
“If vegetation is stressed and there are particularly hot or dry conditions, it dries out and evaporates, and that can accelerate any fires that do occur,” he said.
“It helps dry out the fuels a little bit more, which is exactly what we need during a bad fire season: something to burn.”
It is forecast to remain warm into spring.