Donald Trump has built up a lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets as the vice president continued to gain support over the former president.
According to Real clear pollsA compilation of half a dozen betting sources on the election, Trump now has a 49.7% chance of winning, leading Harris by 0.9 percentage points. Trump hasn’t led the betting odds since Aug. 22.
On August 31, the two were still tied, after Harris had only a 29% chance on July 21, the day Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
Some election forecasters see betting markets as a useful indicator because gamblers are primarily concerned with profit, while pollsters are more vulnerable to political and media influence.
Donald Trump has built a lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets as the vice president’s popularity soared to level with the former president.
The two were tied on August 31, after Harris had only a 29% chance on July 21, the day Joe Biden withdrew from the race and Harris announced her own candidacy.
Of the six bookmakers in RCP’s total, only PredictIt (53%) has Harris ahead.
Trump and Harris are tied on Bwin betting markets, but Trump holds a lead over the former California senator in the other four, with Bovada giving him a 52% chance of victory.
Polls continue to show Harris with a narrow lead, as the vice president holds a 1.8% lead over Trump in RCP polls.
However, Trump leads the polls in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and is tied with Harris in Nevada.
The vice president tops the averages in the other three swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If all other results from the 2020 election held and those states suffered the same fate, Harris would have exactly 270 electoral votes pending Nevada’s results. That’s enough to win the White House.
However, the latest polls in the swing states show that Harris received little to no support from the convention. Trump is ahead of the vice president in several key swing states.
A study by the Trafalgar Group of seven of the toughest contests (according to experts, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada) shows that Trump is either ahead or tied with Harris.
Trump holds a 47% to 45% lead over Harris in Pennsylvania and a 47% to 46% lead in Wisconsin, two states that turned red in 2016 when Trump won but turned red again in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden.
Trafalgar’s survey, which is considered Republican by pollsters, also shows Harris nearly tied with Trump in Michigan, with the former president ahead 47% to 46.6%.
Trump leads the polling average in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and is tied with Harris in Nevada
Polls show Harris still has a narrow lead, as the vice president holds a 1.8% lead over Trump in RCP polls.
Michigan was another state Trump took from Hillary Clinton in 2016, before handing it to Biden four years later.
A separate study by Insider advantage Trump leads by one point in Arizona (49%-48%), Nevada (48%-47%) and North Carolina (49%-48%), while Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in Georgia.
Both campaigns are targeting independent and undecided voters in the seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris and his vice presidential nominee Tim Walz spent Labor Day in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, including a rally with Biden. Trump, however, made no public appearances.
Like Harris, Trump did not experience the usual upswing after the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in July.
The stalled nature of the Trump-Harris battle is a sign of the gridlock in the highly polarized 2024 race as campaigns enter the final two months before Election Day.
Trump leads the pack in the top concerns voters have heading into the election, with an 8 percentage point increase in confidence in addressing the economy and rising inflation, and a 9 percentage point lead in handling immigration at the southern border.
The candidates’ running mates are head-to-head with just one percentage point of those who think they are ready to be president if need be. Walz has 50 percent confidence compared to the 49 percent Vance has earned.
But a quarter of respondents were not yet ready to give their opinion on Walz or Vance.
This week’s story appears to be largely a preview of the September 10 debate in Philadelphia between Trump and Harris, which was broadcast on ABC News.
Trump will join Sean Hannity at a Fox News event at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on September 4.