TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Compared to the wild twists and turns of the presidential election, Florida’s primary on Tuesday will be relatively tame. The only statewide race on the ballot is for Republican Rick Scott’s Senate seat, which will determine who he’ll face in November.
Local elections will be the main motivator to get people out to the polls, including school board seats, as Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis pushes conservatives to win seats in several districts.
Here’s what to expect from the Florida primary:
Although Scott is technically in a primary, he is expected to easily win against two minor candidates with little name recognition or money. He has the power of the incumbent presidency along with the support of his party and has already spent about $27 million on his re-election, including millions of his own personal money.
The leading candidate in the Democratic primary is former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who in 2018 became the first Ecuadorian-American and the first South American-born woman elected to Congress. She lost her seat after one term.
Mucarsel-Powell has the backing of party leaders and has raised $12 million for the race. Scott is already campaigning as if she will be his opponent, but she will first face Navy veteran and businessman Stanley Campbell, Army veteran and businessman Rod Joseph, and Brian Rush, a former four-term Florida state representative.
Incumbents are in the race for 27 of the 28 seats in the House of Representatives, and everyone should be safe in the primaries barring any surprises. The only open seat is now held by Republican Bill Posey in a conservative district along Florida’s central Atlantic coast.
Posey announced his retirement after former Senate Majority Leader Mike Haridopolos qualified for the race. He immediately endorsed Haridopolos, who is now running against tech entrepreneur John Hearton. The winner of the GOP primary is the favorite to win in November. Democrats Sandy Kennedy and Daniel McDow are seeking the Democratic nomination.
US Congressman Matt Gaetz’s candidacy for a fifth term is also getting some attention, especially since former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political committee spent $3 million attacking Gaetz and supporting primary opponent Aaron Dimmock. McCarthy’s involvement in the race comes after Gaetz led a group of eight far-right Republicans who ousted McCarthy from the chairmanship with the help of Democratic members.
The attacks on Gaetz are brutal, stemming from a House Ethics Committee investigation into sexual misconduct and drug use. But the allegations are not new, and Gaetz has a loyal following in the district that covers Pensacola and much of the Panhandle. Since winning office in 2016, Gaetz has easily won primaries, with between 65% and 80% of the vote.
For the first time ever, Florida Democrats have fielded a candidate for all 120 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the Senate. While it is an admirable achievement and will force Republicans to split their money, Democrats lost control of the Senate in 1992 and the House of Representatives in 1996.
Republicans have built supermajorities in both chambers. A few seats may switch parties after November, but Republicans are likely to maintain their dominance in the legislature.
School board elections will receive additional attention in several districts with DeSantis approving 23 school board candidates in 14 provinces this cycle and targeting 14 sitting members. It is part of his agenda to counter what he calls “woke” ideology in public schools.
By the closing date for the primaries, Republicans outnumbered Democrats 5.3 million versus 4.3 million, with 3.5 million voters choosing not to register with a party.
As of Friday morning, nearly 1.6 million of Florida’s 13.5 million voters had cast ballots by mail or at early polling places, indicating low overall turnout in the primary. Republicans cast about 733,000 votes, compared to about 515,000 Democrats.